Delhivery, Aegis Logistics get new 'overweight' from JPMorgan; check target

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JPMorgan initiated coverage on India's logistics sector, with stocks including Delhivery and Aegis Logistics being among the top picks, citing rising customer penetration and tech-driven efficiencies. 

 

The global brokerage assigned an 'overweight' rating on Delhivery and Aegis Logistics with a target price of ₹575 (21 per cent upside) and ₹895 per share (12 per cent upside). TCI Express received a 'Neutral' rating with a target of ₹750 apiece. 

 

JPMorgan said it remains bullish on India’s logistics sector, citing fast-growing business-to-consumer and business-to-business express delivery, along with opportunities in the oil and gas segment. The brokerage expects India’s e-commerce logistics market to outpace the industry with a 16 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through financial year 2030, driven by rising customer penetration in tier-2 and smaller cities and technology-led efficiencies.

 

It added that labour shortages are making automation investments critical, with new-age players like Delhivery leveraging this to sharpen execution and raise entry barriers. JPMorgan also highlighted oil and gas logistics as an underappreciated story, pointing to rising liquefied petroleum gas imports and capacity creation at ports as a multi-year growth driver for Aegis Logistics. 

 

It noted that investors continue to reward logistics companies with strong revenue growth potential, while earnings misses have led to sharp de-ratings. The slightly cautious view on TCI Express comes as valuations reflect the expected growth acceleration, JPMorgan said. 

 

On Wednesday, shares of Delhivery rose nearly 1 per cent, while Aegis Logistics stock fell over 2 per cent on the exchanges.   ALSO READ | Prestige Estates "doing all things right", says Nomura; sees 17% upside

JPMorgan on Delhivery 

JPMorgan forecasts a 58 per cent CAGR for Delhivery in Ebitda during financial years 2025 to 2028, supported by economies of scale and easing competitive pressures.

 

It noted that consensus earnings revisions have turned positive, with additional tailwinds from goods and services tax rate cuts and improving pricing discipline. The volume impact from a major e-commerce player’s increased captive sourcing is now factored in. 

 

JPMorgan added that Delhivery’s strong technology moat gives it a unique position among express logistics players, as it transitions from a capex-heavy phase to a free cash flow-generating business. The company’s healthy net cash balance sheet also provides scope for future mergers and acquisitions, it said. 

JPMorgan on Aegis Logistics

JPMorgan said India's oil and gas logistics story is underappreciated and expects liquefied petroleum gas imports to rise by about 10 million tonnes by the financial year 2030, implying an 8 per cent compound annual growth rate. This will be driven as domestic production stagnates while consumption increases in household cooking, petrochemicals and syngas production.

 

It said Aegis’ capacity expansion, partnerships with marquee customers, strong return on capital employed and high entry barriers provide the right mix for a continued re-rating, with JPMorgan estimating 16 per cent earnings growth between financial years 2025 and 2028.