Gold to glitter: Prices may rise 20-25% in Samvat 2082; check key tailwinds

Gold prices can rise up to ₹1,65,000 per 10 gram till next Diwali

Gold’s story in Samvat 2082 isn’t about glitter — it’s about protection. This year, gold seems to have stolen the show. Throughout 2025, it has dazzled the markets, recording 39 new all-time highs — an extraordinary run that has reaffirmed its reputation as the metal that never loses its shine. After delivering a 61 per cent rally since the last Samvat, many investors are wondering if the bull run is over.

Central Banks join the gold rush

It’s not just retail investors — central banks across the world are also turning to gold as they seek to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. As the dollar’s share of global reserves falls to around 42 per cent, gold’s share has been steadily climbing. Nations like China, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan have been leading this quiet shift, adding hundreds of tonnes of gold to their reserves.

 

The BRICS bloc’s de-dollarisation due to tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe only strengthen gold’s role as the world’s preferred “neutral reserve”.

 

Every 1 per cent re-allocation of global reserves from the dollar to gold adds roughly 530 tonnes of demand — a significant structural boost that keeps gold’s long-term outlook robust.

 

These moves reflect growing concerns over debt, deficits, and the reliability of fiat currencies — reinforcing gold’s unique position as a universal store of value.

 

Gold bull markets rarely end with central banks still buying and real interest rates still near neutral levels.  ALSO READ| Samvat 2082 top stock picks; Bajaj Fin, Swiggy, 8 others can gain up to 44%

Global shifts favour gold

With a weakening labour market and persistent inflation, the Fed faces one of its most complex challenges in years. The US dollar has peaked after an aggressive tightening cycle. After a 25-basis point rate cut in September, Chair Jerome Powell signalled the possibility of two more cuts in the coming months. Rising federal debt and ballooning fiscal deficits have further strengthened gold’s role as a safe-haven asset amid weakening US fundamentals.

 

Adding to this, the delayed release of official employment data — caused by a government shutdown — fuelled investor uncertainty. Should the labour market worsen, or financial stress deepen, the Fed may resort to aggressive easing measures, adding more fuel to gold’s momentum.

 

The impact of Trump-era tariffs, pushing inflation to 2.9 per cent, has led the Fed to revise its inflation outlook upward. With the US inflation still sticky and the Federal Reserve expected to ease rates further going ahead in 2025, the next leg of liquidity will find its way into hard assets like gold and silver. This combination of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and fiscal imbalance has created a perfect storm — and gold and silver continues to be the preferred shelter.

Short-term fluctuations, long-term strength

Even as gold scales new highs, markets never move in straight lines. A short phase of correction or consolidation is always possible.

 

Past sell-offs — like in 2008 — were triggered only by extreme liquidity shocks. Similarly, if geopolitical tensions ease, such as through a peace accord between Israel and Hamas, some of gold’s “geopolitical premium” could fade in the short run.

 

But such dips should be seen as temporary pauses, not trend reversals. The underlying forces — persistent inflation, widening fiscal deficits, global economic uncertainty, and diversification by central banks — all remain strongly in gold’s favour.

India’s own tailwinds

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold. With the rupee under structural pressure, imported gold prices could continue to make new highs even if global gold prices consolidate as the rupee weakens. A strong wedding and festival season through Samvat 2082 ensures steady demand. Gold is also witnessing demand from ETF’s globally as investors who feel left out are rushing to buy gold.

 

We expect gold prices in India to rise between 20-25 per cent per 10 gram during Samvat 2082. From ₹1,34,400 it can rise in the range of ₹1,57,000-₹1,65,000 per 10 gram till next Diwali.

Portfolio insurance, not emotion

Gold remains the ultimate portfolio hedge against unexpected drawdowns. A portfolio that includes gold has delivered better risk adjusted returns than one with only equities over the long run. If you are concerned about entering in gold now after a sharp rally then you can even do a SIP. 

 

Data Source: World Gold Council, Federal Reserve 

 

(Disclaimer: Apurva Sheth is head of market perspectives & research at SAMCO Securities. Views expressed are his own.)