Hindalco shares slip 6%; why Aditya Birla group stock under pressure?

Share price of Hindalco Industries today?

 

Shares of Hindalco Industries slipped 6 per cent to ₹778.10 on the BSE in Thursday’s intra-day trade in an otherwise firm market on profit-booking after the company said that the September fire at its aluminium recycling unit Novelis' New York plant will impact its cash flow for 2026 by $550 million-$650 million.

 

Hindalco is the world’s largest aluminium company by revenue, and the world’s second largest copper rods manufacturer (outside China). Novelis, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, is a leading sustainable aluminum solutions provider and the world leader in aluminum rolling and recycling.

 

At 09:33 AM; Hindalco was quoting 5 per cent lower at ₹787.05, as compared to 0.36 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. 

 

Despite today’s decline, thus far in the calendar year 2025, Hindalco has outperformed the market by surging 34 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark index was up 6.5 per cent during the same period. The stock price of the Aditya Birla Group company had hit a record high of ₹863.80 on October 30, 2025.

 

Update on fire incident at Oswego Plant of Novelis Inc.

 

Novelis on Wednesday said it expects the free cash flow for the current financial year to be negatively impacted by $550-650 million due to a fire incident at its plant in New York in September. This includes $100-150 million impact in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

 

“In Q2FY26, the company recognized $21 million in related charges. The estimated FY2026 negative free cash flow impact ~$550-650 million, including adjusted EBITDA impact of ~$100-150 million,” Novelis said in an exchange filing. The Hot Mill is expected to restart by end-December 2025, followed by a 4-6 week of production ramp-up, the company said.   

Novelis’ Q2FY26 results

 

Novelis’ net sales for July to September quarter (Q2FY26) increased 10 per cent versus the prior year period to $4.7 billion, mainly driven by higher average aluminum prices. Total rolled product shipments of 941 kilotonnes (KT) were in line with the prior year period. Slightly higher automotive and aerospace shipments were offset by lower beverage packaging and specialty shipments.

 

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $422 million with EBITDA/tonne stood at $448/tonne (down 8 per cent YoY & up 4 per cent QoQ). This includes a net negative tariff impact of $54 million. 

 

These decreases were primarily driven by a net negative tariff impact and higher aluminum scrap prices, partially offset by higher product pricing and cost efficiency actions, Novelis said.

 

Net Income for the quarter stood at $163 million (up by 27 per cent YoY), primarily driven by favourable metal price lag resulting from rising average local market aluminum premiums, as well as lower charges associated with the prior year Sierre flood, partially offset by lower operating performance.

 

ICICI Securities view on Hindalco

 

Overall performance for the quarter came in line with expectations, largely driven by higher aluminium prices and an improved product mix. However, the fire accident at the Oswego plant is expected to result in a volume impact of 75 KT, leading to a negative EBITDA impact of ~$100- 150 million in H2FY26 with the cash flow impact projected at ~$550- 650 million in H2FY26.  Moreover, the capex for the Bay Minette project has increased to $5 billion (from $4.1 billion earlier), with the IRR now expected to be in the high single digits (compared to the earlier double digit estimate). As a result, lower operating performance and higher capex intensity are likely to keep its leverage ratio elevated, ICICI Securities said in a note.

 

The brokerage firm therefore expects the underperformance at Novelis operations to continue, with the recovery to $500/ton EBITDA taking longer than expected. On that note, analysts remain cautiously optimistic on Hindalco, considering that Novelis accounts for ~60 per cent of consolidated revenue and ~56 per cent of EBITDA.