ITC to release Q1 results this week; check estimates, date, other details

ITC Q1 results preview: ITC's net profit is estimated to increase 2.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹5,041.75 crore; check more details

ITC Q1 results preview: ITC, which has diversified presence in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), packaging, paperboards, specialty papers and agri-business, is slated to release its first quarter (Q1FY26) results on Friday, August 1, 2025. 

ITC Q1 results 2025: Profit estimates

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate ITC's net profit to increase 2.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹5,041.75 crore as compared to ₹4,913 crore. Sequentially, the net profit is expected to rise 2.4 per cent from ₹4,924 crore in Q4FY25.

ITC Q1 results 2025: Revenue expectations

The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to increase 7 per cent in the first quarter (Q1FY26), on average, to ₹18,296 crore as compared to ₹17,042 crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis too, the revenue is poised to increase 6 per cent from ₹17,248 crore in Q4FY25.  ALSO READ | HUL Q1 preview: What analysts expect from FMCG giant? Check estimates, date

How will ITC fare in Q1FY26? Brokerages decode

Kotak Institutional Equities: The brokerage expects some moderation in ITC's cigarette volume growth to 4.5 per cent Y-o-Y, translating into 6 per cent growth in gross cigarette sales.

 

The cigarette business Earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) is likely to grow 3.2 per cent Y-o-Y, with a 165-basis-point points (bps) Y-o-Y decline in Ebit margin, due to inflation in leaf tobacco and other inputs.

 

In the FMCG segment, 5 per cent Y-o-Y revenue growth is expected, as against 4 per cent/3.7 per cent in Q3/Q4FY25 and Ebit margin is likely at 6.8 per cent, down 190 bps Q-o-Q, largely due to raw material inflation in some of the key commodities. 

 

Agri business growth is expected to be at 10 per cent Y-o-Y. Paperboards’ growth is expected to remain subdued at 6 per cent Y-o-Y. Given that, Ebit margin of 10 per cent is anticipated, as against 9.6 per cent/9.2 per cent in Q3/Q4FY25. Net-net, adjusted for the demerger of the hotels business, ITC's like-for-like (LFL) gross sales/Ebit growth are expected to be 6.5 per cent/2.2 per cent Y-o-Y.

 

Consolidated Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of ITC is pegged at ₹6,226.4 crore, as compared to ₹6,295.5 crore a year ago. Ebitda margin is expected at 35.6 per cent in Q1FY26. 

 

Emkay Global Financial Services: Analysts at the brokerage expect 5 per cent volume growth and 7 per cent revenue growth for the cigarettes business. Inflationary leaf tobacco continues to have a bearing on margin, as Ebit margin is expected to contract 200 bps Y-o-Y (as a percentage of net sales) to 71.8 per cent (likely to be flat Q-o-Q). 

 

Other FMCGs are likely to present a muted show with only 2 per cent revenue growth. The recent duty cut and easing in raw material prices are likely to help the margin Q2 onward. Emkay expects a 140 bps Ebitda margin contraction Y-o-Y to 7.2 per cent in Q1FY26. 

 

For the agri business, 25 per cent revenue growth is anticipated, aided by better rice and leaf tobacco exports as well as opportunities in agri produce. Ebit margin standing firm Y-o-Y, at 5.2 per cent. 

 

The paper business is likely to remain impacted by the downcycle, and 7 per cent revenue growth Y-o-Y is forecasted. Segment margin is likely to log at 10 per cent, down by 280 bps Y-o-Y. 

 

Overall, the revenue is pegged at ₹18,367 crore, as compared to ₹17,042 a year ago.  ALSO READ | Swiggy Q1 results preview: Check Street's expectations, date, other details 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services: The cigarette business is expected to show stable volumes and pricing, with the portfolio continuing to grow, aided by improvements in the product mix. The brokerage expects 5 per cent volume growth in the business in Q1FY26 and 6 per cent Y-o-Y sales growth in the cigarette business. A 5 per cent Y-o-Y growth is forecasted in cigarette Ebit, though margins may contract 40 bps.

 

FMCG sales growth is likely to be 4 per cent Y-o-Y; however, a 16 per cent decline in Ebit, with a 170 bps margin contraction, is expected as price hikes lag raw material inflation. The paper segment remained weak while the agriculture segment performed well during the quarter. 

 

Nuvama Institutional Equities: Analysts believe cigarette volumes shall increase 4 per cent Y-o-Y on a base of 2.7 per cent growth in Q1FY25. Cigarette net revenue/Ebit is likely to grow 5 per cent/3.4 per cent Y-o-Y. Overall revenue shall grow 9.9 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹17,945 crore as compared to ₹16,334 crore a year ago. 

 

FMCG margins shall be weak in Q1FY26, and sales shall grow 5 per cent Y-o-Y, but Ebit margins are likely to decrease sharply to 22 per cent Y-o-Y. Agri sales are likely to surge 17 per cent Y-o-Y, and profits shall surge 44 per cent Y-o-Y. 

 

Paperbusiness sales are estimated to grow by 4.5 per cent Y-o-Y, but a 28.9 per cent Y-o-Y dip in profits is expected due to high competition from imports and lack of operating leverage.