Jio IPO, New Energy, AI focus: Brokerages decode RIL AGM and stock strategy

Reliance Industries got its 'Buy' call retained from most analysts, with a target price going as high as 27 per cent.

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The roadmap for the public debut of Reliance Jio emerged as the key highlight of Reliance Industries’ (RIL) 48th annual general meeting, with brokerages saying it could unlock significant value and drive the company’s next phase of growth.

 

Apart from this, the renewed focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI), its ambition to become a deep-tech company and strong guidance for the Retail, Digital and New Energy (NE) business kept analysts bullish on the conglomerate. 

 

The oil-to-telecom major got its ‘Buy’ call retained from most analysts, with a target price going as high as 27 per cent. However, on the day of the AGM, the stock closed 2 per cent lower. 

Here’s how leading brokerages have interpreted the developments:

Motilal Oswal

 

The brokerage expects Jio to remain the biggest growth driver with 19 per cent Ebitda CAGR over the financial year 2025-28, driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise offerings. 

 

After a subdued FY25, it expects earnings to recover in the O2C segment, driven by an improvement in refining margins. However, its FY28 consolidated Ebitda for O2C and E&P is around 4 per cent lower than FY24 levels. Overall, Motilal Oswal pegs a CAGR of around 11 per cent in consolidated Ebitda and profit after tax (PAT) over FY25-28. 

 

The brokerage also believes the peak of capex is behind, which should lead to healthy free cash flow (FCF) generation (around ₹1 trillion over FY25-28) and a decline in consolidated net debt. They reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,700 per share. 

 

HSBC

 

The brokerage said RIL’s plan to list Jio by the first half of 2026 is a key step to unlock value and determine market valuation, though it could also spark debate on a holding company discount as the business becomes directly investible. The brokerage highlighted the focus on AI and RIL’s push to transform into a deep-tech company with advanced manufacturing capabilities. It set a target price of ₹1,630.

 

Nuvama Institutional Equities

 

Strong guidance for Retail and Digital, and huge petchem capacity additions shall drive growth, Nuvama said. The Jio IPO by the first half of 2026 could unlock major value, though a holding company discount may limit gains for shareholders. 

 

Nuvama expects New Energy PAT to rise from ₹300 crore in FY26 to ₹11,400 crore by FY30, implying 140 per cent CAGR, with its share in PAT climbing to 9 per cent. Additional businesses in this segment should support RIL’s target of over 50 per cent PAT contribution from New Energy by 2030. The brokerage retained its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,733.

 

Antique Stock Broking

 

RIL's overall strategy is coherent, capital is committed, and demand pools are large-but delivery against aggressive timelines (especially in the New Energy) is the swing factor, the brokerage said. 

 

Jio's IPO is a positive milestone, but as structured, could impose a holdco discount at the RIL level versus a cleaner demerger. “We would, however, be more than compensated by the re-rating of the telecom sector and a likely market premium.”

 

Antique expects near-term focus to split between excitement over listings/AI and scrutiny on execution and returns. It remains constructive on earnings growth and reiterates a ‘Buy’ with a target price of ₹1,640.  

 

JM Financial

 

JM Financial stated that RIL’s plan to list Jio by the first half of 2026 increases the likelihood of a telecom tariff hike by the end of 2025, benefiting both RIL and Bharti. 

 

The brokerage highlighted RIL’s push into AI through a new unit, Reliance Intelligence, with partnerships with Meta and Google, alongside strong growth ambitions for Retail and RCPL. 

 

It noted RIL’s ₹75,000 billion O2C expansion, rapid progress in New Energy, and reiterated its goal to more than double Ebitda by 2027. JM Financial retained its Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,700