Global developments to keep commodity prices volatile in Samvat 2083

Geopolitical factors, global interest rates and supply-demand dynamics will remain key drivers of crude oil and bullion prices, analysts say

Geopolitical developments, the trajectory of global interest rates and evolving supply-demand dynamics are likely to remain key factors influencing commodity markets in Samvat 2083.

 

Analysts said oil prices would continue to be a major driver of Indian markets, while global developments would also influence bullion prices. The World Bank expects oil and most metals to ease from their elevated 2026 annual averages. Analysts also see a bull case for gold, supported by central bank purchases and fiscal uncertainties. Crude prices are expected to fall 20 per cent, but a persistence of global uncertainties could push prices higher.

 

“Samvat 2083 is likely to remain volatile for oil prices,” said Navneet Damani, head of research-commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.  

He expects some normalisation in oil prices if geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease, with Brent settling at $75-80 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) returning to around $70 a barrel.

 

“However, any escalation before the change of government in January could trigger fresh volatility. The next three months will therefore be crucial, and we will watch how crude prices settle within a broader expected range of $70-120 a barrel,” said Damani.

 

Vedika Narvekar, research analyst — commodities and currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, sees Brent crude oil trading in the $80-110 range.

 

“Oil stays a tug of war between supply risk and diplomacy,” she said. “Product markets are tight, diesel is stretched into winter and inventories are shrinking. Against that, talks with Iran, the midterm result and the G7 stock release of 100 million barrels cap the upside.”

 

Nonetheless, Narvekar said that if de-escalation, a US-Iran deal and supply normalisation occur, oil may return below $70 a barrel.

 

Narvekar also said gold would be the steadiest of the three commodities in Samvat 2083.

“For gold, central bank buying, exchange traded fund (ETF) flows, a US deficit near $2 trillion and any stagflation scare support prices, while a December Fed hike and high yields are the main risks,” she said.

 

Narvekar sees MCX gold in the range of ₹1,30,000-1,75,000, with $4,900 (about ₹1,75,000) by the end of 2027.

 

Damani recommends accumulating gold on dips around $3,800-3,900, with targets of $4,200 in the short term and $4,500-4,700 over the medium term.

 

Assuming a USD-INR exchange rate of 96, he sees ₹1,35,000 as an accumulation zone, with targets of ₹1,48,000 and ₹1,60,000-1,68,000.

 

Silver, which fell over 55 per cent from its record highs in Samvat 2082, could continue to remain volatile.

Narvekar said silver had a stronger supply story, with a sixth consecutive deficit expected in 2026 and cumulative shortfalls over five years exceeding 800 million ounces.

 

“But solar thrifting and AI-linked sentiment keep it high-beta to gold, with $48 as support, where a break opens $45,” she said. “A hold could lift it towards $55-60, and a confirmed move above $60 would open $72.”

 

The outlook follows a year of sharp divergence in commodity performance.

Brent crude spot prices surged 60.4 per cent in Samvat 2082 after declining 17.7 per cent in the previous Samvat.

 

Gold and silver, on the other hand, fell 6.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively, in international markets.

 

However, domestic prices remained resilient, with gold gaining 10.8 per cent and silver rising 12.2 per cent, supported by rupee depreciation.