Morgan Stanley bullish on Adani Power; chart hints at 30% upside potential

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have an 'Overweight' rating on Adani Power, and have increased stock price target to ₹185 per share. Technical chart suggests the stock can potentially zoom to ₹200-mark.

Adani Power stock is seen taking a breather on the bourses following an over 55 per cent rally in the preceding three months. The stock from levels of ₹118 at the end of July surged to a high of ₹182.70 in September 2025.  Meanwhile, for the Q2 ended September 2025, Adani Power reported a 13.5 per cent growth in net profit at ₹273.49 crore as against ₹240.94 crore in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue from operations grew by 9.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to ₹1,124.27 crore from ₹1,026.43 crore. 

Morgan Stanley maintains 'Overweight' rating, ups target price

  Post the Q2 performance, analysts at Morgan Stanley have reiterated 'Overweight' rating on the stock, and raised the base case target price to ₹185 per share from ₹163.60 earlier.  Analysts at Morgan Stanley cite improved earnings visibility, a strong Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) portfolio and support balance sheet for capex as key drivers for the stock ahead.  Adani Power has demonstrated strong win rates in recent PPA bids, has what we view as the strongest balance sheet in the segment, and already has placed equipment orders; we think this puts them in a sweet spot to tie up new PPAs, analysts said in the report. 

Explaining its 'Overweight' stance on Adani Power

  "Coal should remain a key driver of India's energy security and help to meet the evening peak demand. Adani Power is India's largest Independent Power Producer (IPP) and second-largest thermal developer (after NTPC), with market share of 8 per cent in both coal capacity and generation. We expect Adani Power to be one of the largest beneficiaries of thermal capacity addition, and see its market share reaching 15 per cent by FY32 with a 41.9GW portfolio (2.5x vs. FY25). The company has also seen favorable resolutions of most regulatory issues", Morgan Stanley said in its report.  The report further states, that in a bull case scenario Adani Power target price would be ₹240; whereas in a bear case the stock could drop to ₹107. 

Here's what technical charts suggest on Adani Power

  Adani Power  Current Price: ₹154.10  Likely Target: ₹200 / ₹129  Upside Potential: 29.8%  Downside Risk: 16.3%  Support: ₹147.50; ₹135  Resistance: ₹166; ₹179; ₹190  Adani Power stock is seen testing the super trend line support on the daily chart around ₹154. The stock has been holding above this key indicator since the breakout on July 9, 2025.   

 

       That said, the stock is seen trading below its short-term moving average - the 20-Day Moving Average (20-DMA) for the third straight day. The key momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly charts have turned marginally negative; hence the stock may face some downward pressure in the near-term.  As such, the stock can potentially fall towards the weekly trend line support at ₹129 - this implies a downside risk of 16.3 per cent from here. The stock may seek intermediate support around ₹147.50 and ₹135 levels.  On the other hand, the broader trend remains favourable for Adani Power. The stock can potentially soar towards ₹200-mark, suggests the chart. On its way up, the stock is likely to face interim resistance around ₹166, ₹179 and ₹190 levels.