Motilal Oswal says Adani Ports is set for multi-year expansion; here's why

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Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) remains bullish on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), citing that container-led momentum continues and its integrated logistics platform enhances long-term visibility.

 

With strong cash flows, a healthy cash balance of ₹13,000 crore, and a net debt-to-Ebitda ratio of 1.8x, research analysts Alok Deora and Shivam Agarwal at MOFSL believe the company is well-positioned for further expansion.

 

The brokerage has retained its Buy rating on Adani Ports shares, with a revised target price of ₹1,770, implying a 16 per cent upside from the current market price of ₹1,531 per share.

Capacity expansion and cargo growth outlook

Capacity enhancements at key ports, ongoing infrastructure projects, and global port acquisitions, analysts believe, provide visibility for steady growth in FY26 and beyond. APSEZ’s diversified cargo mix and ongoing infrastructure investments are expected to support its target of 505–515 MMT cargo handling in FY26.

 

MOFSL analysts expect APSEZ to report 8 per cent growth in cargo volumes over FY25–28E. "This would drive a CAGR of 14 per cent/15 per cent/18 per cent in revenue/Ebitda/PAT over FY25–28E," wrote the analysts in a research note.  ALSO READ | Nifty50 to hit 29,300 by end-2026? Nomura lists top 20 stock picks

October 2025 volumes highlight momentum

Analysts believe APSEZ’s growth remains strong, as reflected in the October 2025 cargo data. The company reported 6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in cargo volumes, driven by a 24 per cent rise in container volumes following international trade growth and the operationalisation of new ports. Total cargo handled in the month reached 40.2 MMT, while year-to-date volumes stood at 284 MMT, with container volumes averaging 22 per cent growth.

 

"Adani Ports’ cargo mix is diversified across commodities and geographies; however, the growth and contribution of coal volumes have been declining, from 38 per cent of total cargo in FY24 to 32 per cent in 1HFY26. The decline is being offset by diversifying the cargo mix toward coastal coal and container volumes," said the brokerage.

 

At the national level, major ports saw 12 per cent Y-o-Y volume growth in October, with container cargo up 13 per cent Y-o-Yto 17.7 MMT, while non-major port volumes fell 6.4 per cent Yo--Y. Coal and POL, which together account for 25 per cent of the commodity mix, declined 13 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.  ALSO READ | Mindspace REIT's acquisition value-accretive, says Nuvama; retains 'Buy'

Logistics arm expanding rapidly, marine gains traction

The logistics arm, anchored by Adani Logistics (ALL), has scaled up rapidly across container train operations, ICDs, warehouses, and trucking. According to MOFSL, "With 12 multi-modal logistics parks, 132 trains, 3.1 million sq. ft. of warehousing, and 1.3 MMT of grain silos, ALL offers true shore-to-door solutions."

 

The integrated model enables APSEZ to capture higher customer wallet share, build cargo stickiness, and position the company to become India’s largest integrated transport utility by 2029.

 

In the marine segment, APSEZ has developed a diversified fleet of 127 vessels and strengthened operations through acquisitions, including Ocean Sparkle (2022) and Astro Offshore (2024). Marine revenue in 2QFY26 jumped to ₹640 crore, with Ebitda surging to ₹340 crore and margins expanding to 52.7 per cent.

 

"The marine business is a profitable, capital-efficient vertical that complements port operations and extends APSEZ’s reach across global shipping routes," MOFSL noted.  ALSO READ | Nomura sees re-rating potential in Indian Banks; Axis, ICICI, SBI top picks

Port sector leadership consolidated

APSEZ, analysts believe, continues to consolidate its leadership in the domestic port sector. Its market share rose to 28.1 per cent in Sep’25 from 27.4 per cent a year ago, while container market share increased to 45.9 per cent from 36 per cent between Mar’20–Sep’25. Key capacity expansions, including the automated Colombo West International Terminal and new berths at Dhamra, along with the ramp-up of Vizhinjam, are expected to strengthen the growth pipeline.

 

Looking ahead, the company targets 850 MMT domestic and 150 MMT international cargo volumes by 2030, leveraging DFC-linked hinterland corridors and industrial clusters to drive long-term growth, said the brokerage.   

(Disclaimer: Target price and stock/sector outlook has been suggested by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL. Views expressed are their own.)