RBI's rate decision, global trends likely to drive markets this week

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In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said.

India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.

Moreover, the November automobile sales data on Monday would also drive sentiments in the markets.

"This week features a heavy data calendar that could influence volatility. Domestic focus will be on monthly auto sales, followed by the release of HSBC manufacturing, services, and composite PMI readings. The most crucial event will be the RBI's monetary policy on December 5, where commentary on inflation, growth, and the rate-cut outlook will be closely tracked," Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

India's economy grew at a higher-than-expected 8.2 per cent - the fastest pace in six quarters - in July-September, as front-loading of production ahead of GST rates cut boosted consumption that helped offset the impact of steep US tariffs.

Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, "The RBI's monetary policy decision on Friday, December 5, 2025, will be a crucial trigger for markets. Another important domestic indicator will be the release of November automobile sales data on December 1, 2025. These figures will offer valuable insight into festive-season demand and shifting rural and urban consumption trends."  Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 474.75 points or 0.55 per cent, and the Nifty went up by 134.8 points or 0.51 per cent. On Thursday, the Sensex hit a record high of 86,055.86, and the Nifty reached its lifetime peak of 26,310.45.

With markets trading at elevated levels, the week ahead is poised to be a pivotal one, as several key domestic and global triggers will determine whether equities can extend their winning streak and push into uncharted territory, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.

"On the domestic front, the RBI's upcoming policy meeting will be the primary focus for market participants. November auto sales data from leading automobile manufacturers will also be closely watched, offering a real-time gauge of whether the post-GST demand recovery is sustaining. A strong set of numbers could further validate the improving macro backdrop and bolster investor sentiment," he said.

Globally, attention will turn to the S&P manufacturing and services PMI readings for major economies, Ponmudi R added.