RIL AGM: Expectations, stock historical performance, strategy decoded

Reliance Industries (RIL) is scheduled to hold its annual general meeting on Friday, August 29 amid expectations that the company to spell out details on its plans to double the overall business by 2030.

 

That apart, a roadmap for doubling of JIO and retail business verticals in three–four years and a game plan for the New Energy (NE) business vertical replicating earnings from the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment going ahead is also eyed, analysts said.

 

At the AGM in 2024, Mukesh Ambani-controlled RIL had guided for 2x growth in its business by 2030, with JIO and Retail envisaged to double over the next three–four years.

 

The upcoming RIL AGM, according to G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, will be forward looking, spelling out details on its consumer / FMCG businesses.

 

"The markets also await clarity on how the company plans to unlock value for shareholders from the new energy and telecom (JIO) businesses. These are the top three things on the market's mind," he said. 

 

RIL stock outperforms

 

At the bourses, meanwhile, the stock has been an outperformer, rallying nearly 16.5 per cent thus far in calendar year 2025 (CY25) as compared to 0.7 per cent gain in the BSE Oil & Gas index and a flat return by the BSE Sensex during this period, ACE Equity data shows.

 

This outperformance, Chokkalingam said, has been mostly led by hopes of JIO unlocking value for the company and shareholders going ahead. If the company is able to unlock value, he believes, it can aid RIL’s future growth, especially the telecom business.

 

“The stock can be bought from a long-term perspective. The only hangover is the fact that RIL is a big beneficiary of cheap Russian oil, which can get impacted in case of adverse tariffs. That said, the share of oil & gas business in RIL's overall revenue pie has been declining. Growth in other businesses will call for a rerating of the stock in the medium-to-long term,” Chokkalingam said.

 

Those at UBS, too, expect RIL stock to perform well in the coming 12-18 months as the group's earnings transformation of the last 5 years opens a path towards value unlocking.

 

“We expect JIO value unlocking in 12-18 months as it reaches maturity with mid-teens growth and growing cash flows. Retail growth should improve to 'teens' as restructuring of B2B comes to a close and store expansion of the past 24 months shows results. We also expect the new energy to start contributing EBITDA from FY27e with 10GW of Solar PV and 15GWh of Battery capacity by then,” analysts at UBS said in a recent note while maintaining a price target of Rs 1,750 on the counter. 

 

History shows the way

 

However, historic data shows that RIL stock has mostly taken a hit in the one-week and one-month period post the AGM.

 

Post the AGMs in 2022 and 2023, RIL stock tumbled over 10 per cent in the one-month period post the event. The 2020 was an exception wherein the stock rallied over 14 per cent on a similar time-line. 

 

 

While the market awaits indication of timelines for Reliance's JIO and Retail IPOs, Nuvama believes that JIO and Retail, if listed separately, shall attract higher values, but may not have material impact on RIL shareholders as it may be offset by a holdco discount.

 

The brokerage maintains a buy rating on RIL stock with a price target of Rs 1,733, indicating an upside of around 23 per cent from the current levels. 

 

That said, progress on doubling of JIO and Retail EBITDA in the next three–four years—as indicated at the last AGM—is keenly awaited, Nuvama said. "Upon streamlining, growth in its Retail business remains crucial for investors. An update on Jio Hotstar monetisation and FMCG expansion is awaited," the report said.