 "RIL Q2 results preview: Jio, O2C may aid growth; retail biz could lag")
India’s biggest conglomerate, Reliance Industries (RIL), is likely to report muted earnings for the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2025-26 (FY26) on Friday, according to analysts.
Consensus earnings estimates for RIL, compiled by Business Standard, suggest that the Mukesh Ambani-led company could see consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) grow around 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), weighed down by a decline in its oil upstream business.
The Mumbai-headquartered company, however, may see robust growth in its telecommunications and oil-to-chemical (O2C) businesses. The RIL board of directors is scheduled to meet on October 17 to consider and approve the Q2FY26 results.
RIL reported consolidated revenue of about ₹2.43 trillion, Ebitda of ₹42,905 crore, and net profit of ₹30,681 crore in the first quarter (Q1) of FY26. These figures stood at ₹2.31 trillion, ₹39,058 crore, and ₹19,101 crore, respectively, in Q2 of 2024-25.
Brokerages crystal gaze
Nomura
Global brokerage Nomura expects RIL’s Q2FY26 consolidated Ebitda to rise 3 per cent Q-o-Q to about ₹44,400 crore, driven by strong performances from Reliance Jio and the O2C business. Growth in these segments, it said, will likely be partially offset by subdued performance in retail and a slight decline in the upstream business.
Segment-wise, Nomura estimates O2C Ebitda at about ₹15,020 crore (up 4 per cent Q-o-Q), led by higher refining margins due to a sequential rise in spreads for diesel and jet fuel, and higher refinery throughput. It assumes a refining margin of $10.1 per barrel in Q2, compared with $10 per barrel in Q1FY26.
It expects upstream Ebitda to remain flat Q-o-Q at around ₹5,000 crore, while Jio may report Q2 Ebitda of ₹17,230 crore (up 3 per cent Q-o-Q), supported by a rise in the subscriber base to 504 million in Q2FY26 from 498 million in Q1FY26, and a modest increase in average revenue per user (Arpu) to ₹212 per month (from ₹209 per month in Q1FY26).
JM Financial Institutional Equities
JM Financial expects RIL’s Q2FY26 consolidated Ebitda to grow 3.6 per cent Q-o-Q to about ₹44,500 crore. The projection factors in O2C Ebitda of ₹15,000 crore (up 3.1 per cent Q-o-Q) on account of higher refining throughput, a slight improvement in the gross refining margin to $9.5 per barrel, and strong auto-fuel marketing margins. Petrochemical margins, however, may remain weak Q-o-Q. Further, it expects exploration and production (E&P) Ebitda to decline 3.4 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹4,800 crore due to a natural decline in KG-D6 gas output.
Among consumer businesses, Reliance Retail’s Q2 Ebitda could rise 12.7 per cent Y-o-Y and 3.5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹6,600 crore, while digital (Jio) Ebitda could grow 2.5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹18,800 crore, led by a gain of 7 million subscribers and a 1.1 per cent sequential rise in Arpu to ₹211. This implies consolidated revenue of about ₹2.5 trillion (up 8 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.7 per cent Q-o-Q), an Ebitda margin of 17.8 per cent (up 91 basis points/bps Y-o-Y and 16 bps Q-o-Q), and net profit of ₹18,385 crore (up 11 per cent Y-o-Y but down 32 per cent Q-o-Q).
Kotak Institutional Equities
Kotak Institutional Equities expects RIL’s consolidated Ebitda to grow 12 per cent Y-o-Y and 2 per cent Q-o-Q to about ₹43,754 crore, with net sales projected at ₹2.59 trillion (up 11.7 per cent Y-o-Y and 6.2 per cent Q-o-Q). Net profit is pegged at ₹21,458 crore, up 12.3 per cent Y-o-Y but down 30 per cent Q-o-Q. Segment-wise, retail and telecommunications Ebitda may rise 15–17 per cent, and about 21 per cent for O2C, partly offset by E&P.
Antique Stock Broking
Antique Stock Broking has slightly more optimistic estimates for Q2FY26. It expects RIL’s Ebitda to increase 4.3 per cent Q-o-Q to about ₹44,750 crore (up 14.6 per cent Y-o-Y), supported by steady growth across all major segments except upstream. The O2C segment is expected to post 3.8 per cent Q-o-Q growth in Ebitda; Jio may report a 2.7 per cent Q-o-Q rise; and the retail segment could see a 4.1 per cent Q-o-Q increase in Ebitda.