US futures make cautious gains on tariff relief, but recession fears remain

Wall Street share futures rallied in Asia on Monday after the White House exempted smartphones and computers from "reciprocal" US tariffs, though gains were limited as President Donald Trump warned levies were still likely at some point.

On the face of it, the exemption of 20 product types accounting for 23 per cent of US imports from China, was a boon to manufacturers. However, the off-again, on-again policy gyrations left investors confused and analysts bearish on the long run.

"The post-Liberation Day back-pedalling has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us," said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan.

"A 10 per cent universal tax is still a very large shock and the huge 145 per cent tax on China is prohibitive," he added. "You cannot stop trade between the world's two largest economies and not expect damage everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60 per cent likelihood of a US/global recession."

After an initial jump, S&P 500 futures pared gains to be up 0.8 per cent, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.25 per cent. The S&P 500 rallied 5.7 per cent last week, but was still more than 5 per cent below where it was before the reciprocal tariffs were first announced in early April.

The market also has more earnings to weather this week with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup among the big banks reporting. Numbers from chipmaker TSMC will be a highlight given Trump's plan to investigate the entire global semiconductor supply chain.

Data out this week includes US retail sales and Chinese gross domestic product, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Wednesday, when he will almost certainly be quizzed on the prospect of rate cuts and the recent stress in the Treasury market.

Early on Monday, there was scant sign of any recovery in bonds with 10-year yields at 4.49 per cent, having seen the largest weekly rise in borrowing costs in decades.

Not so safe

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6 per cent, having shed more than 4 per cent last week. Japan's Nikkei added 2.0 per cent, after fluctuating wildly in recent days in response to the changing tariff news.

Japanese officials are gearing up for trade negotiations with the United States that will likely touch on currency policy, with some officials privately bracing for Washington to call on Tokyo to prop up the yen.

They might not need to work too hard given the dollar had taken a beating from worries the erratic nature of Trump's trade policy was shaking investor faith in US assets.

"The key questions are around the indirect damage done through generating extreme uncertainty around the policy and economic outlook, the ongoing dislocations in the Treasury market and, ultimately, undermining confidence in US institutions and asset markets," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

"It is no longer hyperbole to say that the dollar's reserve status and broader dominant role is at least somewhat in question, even if the inertia and network effects that have kept the dollar on top for decades are not going away any time soon."

The dollar was a shade firmer at 143.72 yen after hitting a six-month low at 142.05 last week. It was pinned at 0.8176 Swiss francs, having shed more than 5 per cent last week to the lowest in a decade.

The euro held at $1.1334, just short of a three-year top of $1.1474. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut rates by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent.

Canada's central bank also meets this week, and markets imply around a one-in-three chance it might trim its 2.75 per cent rates.

In commodity markets, global uncertainty was proving a windfall to gold prices which surged to all-time peaks at $3,245.28 last week. The metal was trading at $3,218 an ounce on Monday. [GOL/]

Oil has had a much tougher time amid fears of a global economic slowdown and increased supply from OPEC, though it found some support from the risk of an end to Iran's exports. [O/R]

Brent was down 9 cents at $64.67 a barrel, while US crude eased 7 cents to $61.44 per barrel.