Valuations, fresh equity supply key risk to Indian stock market: Chris Wood

High valuations, especially in the midcap space, coupled with fresh supply of equity via the initial public offers (IPOs) are the main risks to the Indian stock markets, cautioned Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his recent note to investors, GREED & fear.

 

The rally in the market (since recent lows), Wood cautions, means that valuations have become an issue again, most particularly in the mid-cap space. 

 

The Nifty Index now trades at 22.2x 12-month forward earnings after rising by 14.1 per cent from its April 7 low. While the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 Index trades at 27.1x 12-month forward earnings, following a 23.7 per cent gain from its April 7 low. 

 

“This is also why corporates are again placing equity to take advantage of such valuations. The equivalent of $7.2 billion of equity supply was raised last month and $6 billion so far in June. It is this supply which poses the main risk to the market. Equity supply was running at around $7 billion a month prior to the correction, which began in late September last year,” Wood wrote.

 

Mid, smallcaps steal the show

 

From April 7 levels, while the Nifty 50 has rallied nearly 12 per cent till date, the up move in the mid-and smallcap indices has been sharper.  The Nifty Midcap 150 index and the Nifty Smallcap 250 indexes have surged nearly 17 per cent and 18.5 per cent respectively during this period, ACE Equity data shows. 

 

Meanwhile, primary market activity is set to rebound in the coming week with at least four companies planning to raise a total of about ₹15,000 crore ($1.7 billion) via IPOs, reports suggest. Some prominent ones include Kalpataru, Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases, and Globe Civil Projects. 

 

HDB Financial Services Ltd., a unit of India’s biggest private lender HDFC Bank, is also planning to launch its $1.4 billion IPO on June 25, reports suggest. This will be one of the biggest IPOs since Hyundai Motor India IPO in October 2024 that raised over Rs 27,000 crore.

 

Capex theme

 

The focus in the Indian market since the budget announcement on February 1, Wood wrote, has rotated to playing consumption rather than investment, helped by the monetary easing context with consumer finance stocks rallying sharply. The property market, now in its 5th year of an upturn, has further to run, he believes. 

 

“Pre-sales growth of the top seven developers covered by Jefferies is forecast to accelerate to 22 per cent YoY in FY26 after slowing to 17 per cent YoY in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25) ended March 31, a four year low. A lower mortgage rate, now at 8 per cent and expected to fall to 7.5 per cent when the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate cuts are passed on, should help boost sales in the affordable and mid-income segments,” he said.

 

Portfolio rejig

 

Wood has also rejigged his India portfolio, with the investments in Larsen & Toubro, Thermax and Godrej Properties will be removed and replaced by investments in TVS Motor, Home First Finance and Manappuram Finance, with four percentage points each. 

 

An additional one percentage point each will be added to the existing investments in PolicyBazaar and Bharti Airtel, he said.

 

The investment in Larsen & Toubro in the global long-only equity portfolio has been replaced by an investment in Saint-Gobain, a French construction materials company. In the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, too, the investment in Larsen & Toubro will be removed and replaced by an investment in PolicyBazaar, he said.