Push for Modi 4.0

Leaders with 'mileage' believe they can overcome age and vintage. Think Xi, Biden, Trump, going ahead Erdogan and Putin, and now, we have sufficient evidence to say, Narendra Modi

If I said to you that the frenetic pace of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s travels, inaugurations, foundation-stone laying and speech-making in distant places marks the launch of the campaign for the general elections, you would most certainly ask me, “So what’s the big deal? Don’t we all know the campaign is on? After all, the elections are just weeks away.”

Good question. Except the campaign we are talking about is not for 2024. That, the Modi-Shah Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) considers as signed, sealed, locked in its vault. The campaign we are talking about is for 2029. And that is not only because we already have the evidence of public statements by two BJP stalwarts.

First, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said in Darbhanga that voters should take a pledge to elect Narendra Modi not just for a third, but also for a fourth term for India to end poverty. Then, Home Minister and BJP playmaker Amit Shah said at a media conclave that the Opposition should now be making plans only for 2034 onwards.

Add the two and it means Mr Modi will be in the contest for an unprecedented, consecutive fourth term in 2029. If you are among those who still harbour the illusion that there is a 75-year retirement age in the BJP, consider the fielding of Hema Malini in Mathura for a third term at 75.

If you ask BJP people, they will ask you, “Who ever told you there was an age limit?” Nevertheless, her nomination is as clear an indication as you can get that there is no 75-year cut-off. And if she can contest at 75, who’d grudge Mr Modi at 79 (as he will be in 2029). He would still be about two years younger than Joe Biden today, and two years older than Donald Trump. If one of them can be the US President at that vintage, why not Mr Modi?

In any case, when did age limits work in politics? Even the Chinese Communists, who had instituted strict age limits to make their leadership younger, have rewritten the rules for Xi Jinping. This tempts me to bring back to you that incredibly brilliant line Dharmendra’s character, one of a trio of double-crossing crooks, spoke in the film Johnny Gaddaar (2007) when one of his younger comrades expressed surprise that he did “such vile things” even at his age. “It isn’t about age,” he said, “it’s the mileage”.

The leaders with “mileage” believe they can go on forever. Think Messrs Xi, Biden, Trump, going ahead Mr Erdogan, and Mr Putin and now, we have sufficient evidence to say, Mr Modi. You will see a Narendra Modi campaign for a fourth term in 2029, for sure.

Even more than the words of Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh, we find evidence in how and where Mr Modi is currently campaigning, and what he’s saying. The time and energy he’s investing in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, for example.

All the sceptics, even DMK leaders when they speak on the sidelines, admit that while the BJP may not win any seats by itself, its vote percentage will go up substantially, some estimates taking it to 15-17 per cent. It may not get you even one seat this time but once you reach that range, and the momentum is with you, you are in the game in 2029.

The history of family-run parties in India tells us that by the time the third generation takes over, they lose much power. You can start from the Congress (Nehru-Gandhis) and list all the rest. Will the DMK under Udhayanidhi be an exception?

If the BJP only looks at the way things have gone for other  family-run parties, it will see a wide space opening up for it in Tamil Nadu. Especially with the other claimant to Dravidianism, the AIADMK, already divided and on the ropes.

Believers in the DMK argue that it isn’t just about a dynasty, but ideology, which they believe will survive any individuals. However, in real life, this has not worked in Indian politics thus far. Forget ideology, even religion has not been able to arrest a dynasty-led decline.

Take, for instance, the Shiromani Akali Dal, India’s only fully religion-based party (its head is mandated by its constitution to be a baptised Sikh), and compare its past to its present under the second generation. That’s why we see Mr Modi’s campaign in Tamil Nadu as a pitch for 2029, when he envisions BJP at least as the second leading party.

Kerala brings other opportunities for him. Track the consistent outreach from the BJP to the state’s Christians, whose committed vote is essential for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) politics. There are old suspicions between the Christians and the Muslims, the other UDF vote bank.

If even some of the Christians move to the BJP, the Muslims will move to the Left as they see the Congress/UDF in decline. The BJP will then have plenty of space. It is in anticipation of this that he is campaigning now and also recruiting leaders who would’ve been expected to be in the Congress. For example, the son and daughter, respectively, of two former Congress chief ministers: A K Antony and K Karunakaran. This is his campaign in Kerala for 2029.

If you take a closer look at the BJP’s flurry of alliance-making, a long-term pattern is clear. Today, the BJP is carefully choosing allies already in decline, with a poor negotiating position and whose decline then can be hastened so it moves into their space.

We can give you an entire list to show a clear pattern with no exceptions. In Assam, the BJP won the 2016 elections in alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). In the subsequent Bodoland tribal council election, however, it dumped the BPF and found another tribal ally in the United People’s Party Liberal (UPP-L), led by Pramod Boro. A much-weakened BPF returned to the fold in 2022, while the AGP was also now a pale shadow of itself.

A similar pattern followed in Bihar. The BJP used Chirag Paswan to weaken Nitish Kumar (he only put up candidates against JDU in state elections and called himself Modiji’s Hanuman) and was now trying to break away JDU’s MPs, leaving Nitish no choice other than defecting back. By 2029, you can imagine what the state of JDU will be. If anything, it is likely to emerge much weaker even by this summer.

This is exactly how the alliance-making is panning out in Andhra (a weaker TDP, likely to weaken under the third generation in 2029), in Haryana  (where Dushyant Chautala’s JJP is nearly finished), and even in Maharashtra, where an old ally, the Shiv Sena, is dismembered, while the new acquisition, breakaway NCP, has no future without the BJP.

If you add it all up, you will know why we say that the Modi-BJP campaign for 2029 is already on. What can the Opposition do? Watch this space in the coming weeks.

By special arrangement with ThePrint