No middle ground

Xi's decision to skip the G20 summit is a lose-lose

After weeks of speculation, the Chinese foreign ministry confirmed on Monday that President Xi Jinping would not be attending the G20 summit in New Delhi this weekend. China instead will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, number two in the government. While China has not given any specific reason for the absence of Mr Xi, there could be many explanations. For one, the diplomatic relations between India and China are significantly strained, at least since the border clashes of 2020, which led to an increased military presence at the Line of Actual Control. It could also be a signal to India that the resolution of border issues, despite recent talks, would not happen in a hurry. Further, it is likely that China does not want India’s presidency to be a success. India’s international profile has increased in recent years, both on strategic and economic fronts. China, along with Russia, has not allowed consensus building in ministerial meetings.

It can also be argued that China intends to undermine the G20 and strengthen Brics by expanding its membership as a counter to the US-led Western alliance. However, this is an inherently difficult proposition. Brics, particularly after the recent expansion decision, will become an even more disparate group. It has not achieved much since its inception in any case. China, for example, has been pushing for an alternative to the US dollar-denominated financial system. However, given its own position on capital controls and the current weakness in its financial system, it is not clear how China can move forward in this context. Besides, a complete detachment from the West will not be in China’s own interests. It is also likely that Mr Xi decided against visiting New Delhi to avoid addressing questions from Western leaders on China’s support to Russia.

Whatever the reason, the absence of the Chinese head of state will take some shine off the much-anticipated G20 summit in New Delhi. It is also likely that sustained objections by Russia and China since the beginning would make it difficult to come out with a joint communique in the absence of their leaders. While it can be reasonably argued that the G20 itself over the years has not been able to achieve much, India’s presidency enabled discussion on various important issues, including reforms in multilateral development banks and the importance of debt sustainability in low- and middle-income countries. Although it remains to be seen how far the world moves forward during India’s presidency, some of the issues are a work in progress. It is worth noting that in the context of debt sustainability, China’s cooperation will be critical because it is unwilling to take a hit and has insisted that the loans to low-income countries are commercial in nature.

Mr Xi’s decision to skip the G20 summit would also affect his own international position and that of China as an emerging superpower. The decision makes the Chinese leadership more unpredictable and less dependable. India will, however, have to deal with China beyond the necessities of a G20-like forum. It is now clear that India’s diplomatic relations with China are unlikely to normalise in the near term. There will also remain an economic risk, given India’s dependence on Chinese imports. India will thus have to tread carefully on the military and diplomatic front while reducing its dependence on Chinese imports.