Lower nominal GDP estimates have nudged up FY26 fiscal deficit and debt ratios, implying a steeper consolidation path even as new NSO GDP data revises sectoral weights
India revises GDP methodology | Pronab Sen explains what it means
India's GDP growth for FY27 is seen at 7-7.4% under the new series, with risks tilted upward, as strong momentum, reforms and trade deals lift the outlook
One way to look at the new series is as a shift from a grainy image to a higher-resolution one. The scene itself does not suddenly change, but the blur is reduced
India is set to release a revised GDP series with FY23 as the new base year, replacing 2011-12.
Overall, the 2022-23 base revision represents a substantive statistical reset
What is GDP, how is it calculated, and why do estimates matter? A simple guide to GDP, GSDP, nominal vs real growth and India's new base year
India will shift GDP base year to FY23 and adopt price deflators and double deflation to improve accuracy, reflect structural shifts, and align national accounts with global standards
EAC-PM chief Mahendra Dev says India must raise investment, expand labour-intensive manufacturing, upgrade health and education and deepen state-level reforms to reach developed-economy status by 2047
As India shifts its GDP base year to 2022-23, economists are divided on whether the unrevised WPI base will distort real growth estimates, even as CPI has been updated to 2024
Economists expect Q3 GDP growth to remain above 7 per cent, supported by a pickup in consumption and investment
India's revised GDP series will introduce major changes in inflation adjustment for consumption, investment and trade, shifting toward granular deflators and global SNA standards to reduce volatility
Panel report released by the National Statistics Office signals shift to more granular expenditure tracking
Finance minister says Budget aims to strengthen domestic capabilities, citing strong growth and low inflation as a "Goldilocks moment" for the economy
Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.2 per cent fourth-quarter growth compared with the previous three months
Moody's Ratings on Monday projected India's GDP to grow at 6.4 per cent in the next fiscal, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption, policy measures, and a stable banking system. In its banking system outlook report, Moody's said their asset quality will remain resilient, with some stress among micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Regardless, banks have sufficient reserves to absorb loan losses, it said. The operating environment for banks will remain strong in 2026, supported by robust macroeconomic conditions and structural reforms, it said. "We forecast India's real GDP will grow 6.4 per cent for fiscal 2026-27, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption and policy measures. "The rationalization of the goods and services tax (GST) in September 2025 and an earlier increase in personal income tax thresholds will help improve affordability for consumers and support consumption-led growth," Moody's said.
The RBI's MPC held rates steady, citing improved growth and benign inflation, while announcing regulatory steps to boost credit flow and strengthen digital payment safety
Inflation risks may prove to be broader than what that explanation implies
Economists say the India-US trade deal could lift FY27 GDP growth by 20-40 basis points by boosting exports and reducing uncertainty, though risks from imports remain
For the private sector, the real story lies in the de-risking of the Indian investment landscape