The total above ground stock of gold is large in both physical and financial terms: almost 220,000 tonnes of gold have been mined ever, WGC estimates, valued at nearly $31 trillion at the end of 2025.
WGC says fundamentals will keep gold strong in 2026 as India drafts a long-term gold policy, with rising wedding budgets, ETF demand and a push to privatise monetisation schemes
The value of gold, the note said, is only 60 - 70 per cent of the jewellery purchase price. The weak performance of diamonds, which form a meaningful part of the jewellery purchase price, caps gains.
On the downside, gold prices, WGC said, can slip 5 per cent to 20 per cent in CY26. For that to happen, Donald Trump's policies need to succeed, resulting in stronger-than-expected growth.
From a technical perspective, the first key technical support for gold, according to WGC, is seen around its medium-term 55-day average and initial Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the 2022 low
Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives and research at SAMCO Securities believes that the recent buying frenzy in both gold and silver has been led by FOMO - buying out of fear of missing out
This holding is nearly 88.8 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP), the note said; and at the current market value is about 3.1x times the current equity stock holding with Indian households
Central banks, WGC said, added a net 15 tonnes to global gold reserves in August, based on reported data from both the IMF and respective central banks.
In their bear-case scenario, WGC sees gold prices dip 12 - 17 per cent in H2-CY25 finishing 2025 with positive but low double-digit (or even single-digit) return
The key risks to the upside in gold, BofA Securities said includes US fiscal consolidation, reduced geopolitical tensions, and a return to collaborative inter-governmental relations
The recent uptick in gold prices in 2025 has been led by tariff threats by US president Donald Trump, which in turn have seen investors move away from equities to safer havens.
Spot gold prices rose by 27 per cent last year, the most since 2010, as investors chose the metal to hedge against global risks and as the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates