Gold price forecast 2026: WGC sees up to 30% rise amid flight to safety

Gold prices can rise between 15 to 30 per cent in calendar year 2026 (CY26) from the current levels, suggests a note by World Gold Council (WGC). 

So far in CY25, gold prices have surged around 53 per cent as investors rushed to the safety of the yellow metal in the backdrop of US tariffs and geopolitical concerns.

 

Central bank purchases of gold and their moves on interest rates also shaped gold’s price trajectory in CY25. 

“The combination of falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight-to-safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold, supporting a sharp move higher. Under this scenario gold could surge 15 per cent - 30 per cent in 2026 from current levels,” the WGC report said. 

Investment demand, particularly via gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), WGC said, would remain a key driver, offsetting weakness in other areas of the market, such as jewellery or technology. 

 

Global gold ETFs have seen $77 billion of inflows so far in CY25, according to WGC data, adding over 700 tonnes to their holdings.

 

“Even if we move the starting point back further to May 2024, collective gold ETF holdings are up by approximately 850 tonnes. This figure is less than half of what we have seen in previous gold bull cycles leaving ample room for growth," WGC said. 

The flip side 

On the downside, gold prices, WGC said, can slip 5 per cent to 20 per cent in CY26. For that to happen, Donald Trump’s policies need to succeed, resulting in stronger-than-expected growth linked to fiscal induced support in the US.

 

“Under these conditions, reflation likely takes hold, pushing activity higher and lifting global growth toward a firmer trajectory. As inflation pressures mount, the Fed would be forced to hold or even hike rates in 2026,” WGC cautioned. 

This, WGC said, in turn, would push long-term yields higher and strengthen the US dollar.

 

“The rise in yields and a firmer currency increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and draw capital back toward US assets. Improving economic sentiment would also fuel a broad risk-on rotation,” WGC said. 

Rising yields, a stronger dollar, and the shift toward risk-on positioning, WGC said, could weigh heavily on gold prices, prompting a notable withdrawal of investor interest.

 

“With hedges unwound and retail demand softening, the backdrop turns decidedly negative, resulting in a gold price correction of between 5 per cent and 20 per cent from the current levels,” WGC said. 

As a result, Gold ETF holdings could also see sustained outflows as investors shift into equities and higher-yielding assets. Their magnitude, WGC notes, would be a function of the reduction in gold’s risk-induced premium, which has been a mainstay since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

“However, historical analysis also shows that opportunistic buying from consumers and long-term investors could act as a buffer in this kind of environment,” the report said.