Targeting telecoms, trade and power: China's strategy for a Taiwan showdown

China is more likely to launch cyber and economic warfare against Taiwan than a full-scale invasion, say experts, warning that Beijing could target energy, finance and telecom sectors

At a congressional hearing in Washington on Thursday, analysts and lawmakers warned that while China continues to pressure Taiwan, a full-scale military invasion is less likely than a blockade or cyber-enabled economic warfare. They urged the United States to prepare for a range of possible scenarios, the South China Morning Post reported. 

Mark Montgomery, a retired US rear admiral and senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party that Beijing is more inclined to deploy non-military tactics. 

“The most likely scenario is they’re going to try this cyber-enabled economic warfare campaign,” he testified, suggesting that China would aim to coerce Taiwan into submission using less extreme methods than military force. 

Montgomery warned that such a campaign would likely focus on critical infrastructure, targeting Taiwan’s financial, energy, and telecommunications sectors through cyberattacks and other forms of disruption, the news report stated.

 

China’s broader goal: Reunification without force

China considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to achieve reunification. While most nations, including the United States, do not formally recognise Taiwan as an independent country, Washington strongly opposes any attempt to take the island by force and continues to provide it with military support. 

Amid growing tensions, US officials have voiced concerns over a possible Chinese move against Taiwan, potentially as early as 2027. These fears have been reinforced by increased Chinese military activities, including regular People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flights crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line.

 

Blockade more likely than invasion, lawmakers say

Despite the rise in PLA sorties, some lawmakers and experts emphasised that a blockade is a more probable course of action than an outright invasion.     

 

  The report quoted Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Democrat from Illinois and the committee’s ranking member, as saying, “While these air crossings happen almost daily, making invasion seem possible, a more likely scenario is a CCP-led blockade of the island.” 

To counter such a threat, Krishnamoorthi suggested Taiwan should build strategic reserves of key commodities such as natural gas, soy, and corn. 

Witnesses also stressed the importance of maintaining readiness for a possible invasion, even if it is not the most immediate threat.

 

Is China waging war without fighting?

Beijing’s ultimate objective is to bring Taiwan under its control without a military operation, said Charles Flynn, a retired US army general. However, he cautioned against underestimating the risk posed by China’s military manoeuvres. “We cannot discount the threat that they pose by what they do with their air, maritime and ground forces,” Flynn said.   

 

  Flynn, who commanded US Army Pacific from 2021 to 2024, urged the US to enhance its land-based military posture, warning that over-reliance on sea and air power could leave gaps in defence. “For far too long, we’ve invested in exquisite systems to fight a sea and air campaign but left ourselves exposed where it matters most: on land where wars are won or lost,” the report quoted him as saying.

 

Naval deterrence key, says former diplomat

Kurt Campbell, who served as deputy secretary of state under former President Joe Biden, also testified at the hearing. He emphasised the strategic importance of naval power in deterring Chinese aggression. “This is a naval theatre,” Campbell said, noting that in the event of a blockade, the US submarine fleet would be critical in countering Beijing’s moves.