Foreign automakers' market share in China projected to shrink further

The picture for foreign automakers in China doesn’t get any rosier with new research from consultant AlixPartners showing local brands’ dominance will climb to as high as 76 per cent by 2030 as the market share of Japanese, European and US companies dwindles. 

 

And despite persistent competitive pressures, the nation’s aggressive car price war is expected to evolve, rather than abate. 

 

Instead of overt price reductions, automakers will increasingly implement “hidden” buyer sweeteners, the report said, like insurance subsidies, offering zero-interest financing or packing models with enhanced driver-assistance features at no extra cost.

 

 

That has been the play book of late from market leader BYD Co., which in February announced that its so-called “God’s Eye” advanced driver assistance system would be standardized across 21 models, including budget vehicles. BYD has also led the latest round of discounting, in late May offering reductions of as much as 34 per cent on 22 of its electric and plug-in hybrid models.

 

China’s automotive industry, once reliant on foreign joint ventures, has undergone a rapid transformation driven in part by significant government support and investment in new energy vehicles. As local brands have grown, foreign automakers have been pushed sideways.

 

In recent years, confronted with slowing domestic growth and persistent overcapacity issues, China’s carmakers have prioritized global expansion. In Europe, Chinese automotive brands are now on track to capture a 10 per cent share of the market by 2030, adding an estimated 800,000 in unit sales that could fundamentally reshape the continent’s car industry, AlixPartners said. 

 

In China meanwhile, battery electric cars are forecast to make up 50 per cent of the market by 2030 with combustion engine cars’ share going from half currently to around 19 per cent, according to the report.