Iran ramps up oil exports amid rising US military presence in region

By Weilun Soon and Julian Lee

 

Iran has been loading oil onto tankers at a rapid pace in recent days, a potential sign of the Persian Gulf state’s preparations in case of an attack by the US.  

Exports from Kharg Island from Feb. 15 to 20 were at nearly 20.1 million barrels, data from Kpler show. That’s almost three times the amount loaded over the same dates in January and the equivalent of more than 3 million barrels a day, far beyond Tehran’s usual daily rate. 

 

The increase comes as the US amasses the largest fighting force in the Middle East since the second Gulf war in 2003. Last year, shortly before American air strikes, Iran rushed to get its oil out of its ports by shipping large volumes onto tankers and sending as much as it could to Kharg Island. A similar pattern was also observed in 2024 during a period of elevated tension. 

 

Oil production and exports are a key pillar of support for Iran’s economy, and the race to load barrels onto vessels would allow Tehran to unlock as much production as possible before any potential disruption. Those barrels, mostly exported from Kharg Island, would need to transit the Strait of Hormuz and largely on tankers that do their best to avoid detection. Satellite data offers a glimpse on the level of activity at the island.

 

It’s unclear what will happen to the ships that have loaded this time around, but it’s possible they will disperse widely if the US does eventually attack, according to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, which specializes in analysis of satellite imagery.

 

Iran has been loading “as much oil as possible” lately, he said on Wednesday, adding that tankers “will definitely disperse away from the island in case of a new round of air strikes.” 

 

Madani estimates that Iranian exports will average between 1.5 million and 1.6 million barrels a day this month. Those figures have been dragged higher by stronger shipments since Feb. 15, he added. 

 

TankerTrackers.com only counts exports once tankers have fully departed Iranian waters and are clearly en route to the global market. Kpler counts them as soon as they leave Iranian ports.

 

The higher flows also show up in satellite images analyzed by Bloomberg. 

 

Between Feb. 15 and 20, the number of tankers observed in waters southeast of Kharg Island more than doubled, from eight to 18. A partial snapshot of the area on Feb. 22 showed nine tankers remaining.  (Oil tankers around Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal on Feb. 20, 2026. Tankers circled in bold were unmoved from Feb. 15. Tankers with a cross through have departed since Feb. 15) 

 

Crude inventories on the island appear to have lowered at the same time the tankers showed up, suggesting barrels were loaded onto the ships. On Feb. 15, four Very Large Crude Carriers and one Suezmax were berthed at Kharg Island. Three VLCCs were seen docked on Feb. 20.

 

A Bloomberg analysis suggests that at least seven tanks were full on Feb. 15, while on Feb. 20 six were seen to be emptier.

 

That view was corroborated by Madani, who noted that the island’s oil storage was around 67 per cent during the weekend, giving Iran ample space to continue topping up the tanks if the tankers are unable to load. The tanks had been as much as 88 per cent full, holding about 30 million barrels, on Jan. 26, he added.