Escalating war in the West Asia has shut down fertiliser plants in the region and severely disrupted shipping routes, potentially curbing supplies to key Asian importers just as farmers gear up for their major cereal planting season.
The world's most populous countries, India and China, as well as key farm product exporters Australia and Indonesia could face pressure on supplies of plant nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, traders and importers said.
Shipments from the West Asia are likely to drop not only because transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for about one-third of global trade for the nutrients, has all but stopped, but also due to cuts in production.
Qatar Energy has had to stop production, opens new tab at the world's largest single-site urea plant, as it lost its source of natural gas feedstock after the company shut down gas output due to attacks on its LNG facilities.
At the same time, sulphur output ??has been cut in other parts of the West Asia.
"Since the conflict started the world has effectively lost three of its largest urea exporters and it has lost three of its largest anhydrous exporters - Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia," said fertiliser analyst Josh Linville of StoneX.
"We have lost a significant chunk of the global supply because of this situation."
Linville said India recently concluded a deal to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, with some of that supply likely to be sourced from the West Asia. "There is a risk of these supplies not reaching India on time."
India buys more than 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilisers from the West Asia. While imports could be hit, output within India has already been affected.
Three Indian plants have been forced to reduce urea output as LNG supplies from Qatar have dropped sharply, said a New Delhi-based senior industry official. As a result, supply is expected to be tight for urea and diammonium phosphate in the short term, the person said.
"The key assumption here is that this stays short-lived," said Matthew Biggin, ??senior commodities analyst at BMI. "If it does, India could look to increased imports from Russia for finished fertilisers to bridge any supply gaps. Domestic production should pick back up once natural gas prices retreat."
FERTILISER MARKET WAS TIGHT BEFORE IRAN WAR
The global fertiliser market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to ensure domestic availability, while producers in Europe have cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas supply, analysts said.
Urea prices have risen by around $80 per ton from around $470 per ton quoted before the start of the Iran war, they said.
China is likely to ??expand fertiliser export controls because of the conflict, two agricultural analysts said, although the restrictions may not be formally announced and instead communicated to major producers and customs.
"It's near certain that China's government will adopt or expand export limits on fertilisers as a result of this conflict," said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.
While China sources more than 50% of its sulphur ??imports from the West Asia, Indonesia relies on the region for nearly 70% of its supplies, traders said. Sulphur is a key ingredient for phosphate fertilisers like diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate.
"It is really hard to find readily available spot cargoes now. There are no spot cargoes anywhere," said one Chinese sulphur trader.
Australia is almost entirely dependent on ??imports to meet its fertiliser needs.
"Australia currently requires fertiliser for wheat and other crop applications," said Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Sydney's Commonwealth Bank.
"Given its time proximity to planting, many large importers would likely have brought in large volumes already, though not all of their requirements would have been covered for the year."
 "Iran war threatens Asia fertiliser supplies ahead of planting season")
