A long cycle

If one can form a view on the next recession and its timing one can position the portfolio accordingly

We are now approaching nine years for the current business expansion in the US. We are already tied for this being the second-longest expansion on record, and it seems to have the legs to continue for a while longer. The current cycle reached a trough in June 2009, and will have completed 106 consecutive months of economic expansion by the end of April 2018. This will make it tied for second place with the business expansion between February 1961 and December 1969. In May, this cycle will move into second place for the duration of expansion, with only the 10-year