The government was poised on the edge yesterday as AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha gave every indication that she would today withdraw the support of the 26 MPs allied with her. A meeting of her party and its allies in Chennai is to discuss the issue today.
The four-party Tamil Nadu alliance led by the AIADMK may not remain united, according to senior ministers. The AIADMK alone has 18 MPs, whom the BJP hopes to split. The ruling party's managers also hope to retain the support of two of Jayalalitha's allies, the MDMK and the PMK.
On the other hand, key Congress leaders count on the support of sections of the Biju Janata Dal and the Samata Party, apart from the support of between 20 and 27 MPs from Jayalalitha's flock.
Union defence minister George Fernandes and BJP leader Pramod Mahajan spent the day deliberating with Jayalalitha, but initial reports said she was adamant that the Centre should notify the 1997 interim award of the Cauvery tribunal. Both sides refused to speak to the media.
A Congress-led alternative government would only take over if the Vajpayee government is defeated on the floor of the Lok Sabha, unless Vajpayee tenders his resignation. The Congress would then count on the support of the Left, the groups led by Laloo Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav, the BSP, TMC and some other small groups.
According to a cabinet minister, even if Jayalalitha withdraws support, the Vajpayee government could count on a great deal of overt and covert support in the House. He was confident that opposition groups like the DMK's six members would either openly vote for the government or absent themselves on the day of voting. The minister was confident that several members from the 26-member Tamil Nadu alliance would also absent themselves in order to reduce the number of those present and voting, and the consequent majority mark.
The six-member Janata Dal could also abstain, certain ministers hope. They point out that the JD-led Karnataka government went along with the Cauvery accord and that three (IK Gujral, Ram Vilas Paswan and Jaipal Reddy) of the six MPs won with the support of the BJP's allies.
A senior official said that for the first time since the government came to power, Jayalalitha was not contacted by any senior functionary even after she rejected the Cauvery pact and threatened to review support. The first contact was made on Tuesday, the day the pact was formally notified.
"The idea appears to be to send the message that she cannot constantly pester the government and hold it to ransom on every issue. For the record, efforts are being made to make her see reason, by sending George Fernandes and Pramod Mahajan, but alternative arrangements are in place if she withdraws support," he said.
