“We had built in tariff hikes in Q1FY26 earlier. We gather that the top two telcos are not in a hurry to raise tariffs. With JPL’s IPO expected in the first half of FY26, our channel checks suggest that tariff hikes may happen after the same. While Vodafone Idea’s fund-raising requirement is urgent, this could still precede tariff hikes… we now assume tariff hikes around July 2026,” analysts at IIFL Capital said in a note. They noted that Vodafone Idea’s follow-on offer in 2024, where the No 3 carrier raised Rs 18,000 crore, happened in April 2024, before tariff hikes took place in July 2024.
Sector analysts also point to elections in key states such as West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in April–May 2026; typically, carriers are averse to raising tariffs during this period to minimise subscriber churn.
“We continue to build in a tariff hike of about 15% (or Rs 50 a month on the base pack) from July 2026,” analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. The brokerage had earlier expected the tariff increase to take place by December 2025.
Carriers, including Jio, have been talking about repair or correction of tariffs in India, which are among the lowest globally, so that increases can be channelled towards better revenues for companies and, in turn, improve profitability. Any increase in tariffs is usually led by the market leader, which is India’s largest carrier, Reliance Jio. Since Jio has seen a rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) without any change to headline tariffs, sector watchers are now changing their expectations.
“The tariff hike has been pushed forward by consensus to Q1FY27 (April–June 2026). However, the management commented that they are comfortable with the current subscriber addition and organic ARPU growth they are seeing for the business. We are building in 18% year-on-year revenue growth for FY27, led by the expected tariff hike in Q1FY27,” analysts at Emkay Research said.
The carrier said in its earnings call that the rise in ARPU has been organic rather than through pushing up tariffs, with subscriber additions rising. “There is no impact of tariff increase in any of this. So, this is just organic ARPU increase based on more offerings that we are giving to customers, the change in the customer mix, the change in the tariff plans. So, completely driven by organic means, with no tariff increase built in here,” said Anshuman Thakur, head of strategy, Reliance Jio Infocomm.
“Over FY26–28, we expect Jio’s ARPU to rise at a 13% compound annual growth rate to Rs 271, led by a 15% tariff hike in June 2026 and another 10% hike in June 2027,” analysts at Jefferies said in a note following Reliance Jio’s third-quarter results. The No 1 telco’s ARPU, a monthly metric of a telecom operator’s profitability, rose by 5 per cent to Rs 214 as of December 2025.
Some brokerages said the carrier does not see any immediate requirement for tariff hikes, with the company satisfied with current growth, including subscriber additions, premiumisation, and newer offerings such as home and enterprise businesses, leading to a healthy pace of revenue growth. “Telecom tariff hike is not a priority; RIL is focusing on subscriber growth with about 5% organic ARPU growth,” researchers at Morgan Stanley said.
Analysts flagged the requirement of the markets regulator’s approval for changes in large IPO minimum float norms. “The government’s approval of changes to listing requirements proposed by Sebi should be imminent, likely paving the way for Jio’s potential listing,” market watchers at Citi Research said.
JM Financial pointed to the Sebi chairperson saying that the Ministry of Finance had approved halving the minimum IPO float for large companies valued at over Rs 5 trillion to 2.5 per cent from 5 per cent earlier. The final notification is still pending and is expected to be issued soon, it added.
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