US may reduce legal immigration by up to 50% under Trump govt: Study

NFAP estimates 1.5-2.4 million fewer green cards over four years, with family-based visas facing the biggest hit

The Trump administration’s policies are expected to reduce legal immigration to the United States by between 33% and 50% by the end of Donald Trump’s four-year term, according to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).

 

In numerical terms, that translates to 1.5 million to 2.4 million fewer people receiving green cards compared with recent trends.

 

Legal immigration levels provide the baseline. In FY 2023, the United States granted 1,172,910 green cards. At that pace, legal immigration over four years would total about 4.69 million. NFAP estimates that under current policies, between 1,546,710 and 2,369,998 fewer legal immigrants will gain permanent residency during the Trump administration.

   

The analysis links the expected drop to a combination of policy measures, including lower refugee admissions, restrictions affecting immediate relatives of US citizens under “public charge” rules, a 39-country immigration ban, and actions targeting Diversity Visa recipients.

 

Immediate relatives of US citizens: What does the data show?

 

Immediate relatives of US citizens are expected to see the largest decline. NFAP estimates that between 941,625 and 1,654,770 fewer immediate relatives will receive green cards during the Trump administration because of restrictive policies.

 

A key driver is the December 16 proclamation covering 39 countries, which blocks the entry of immediate relatives of US citizens and other immigrants. NFAP estimates this measure alone could reduce immigration by up to 76,000 people a year, depending on whether individuals are allowed to apply for adjustment of status while already inside the United States.

 

The analysis assumes that people from 75 countries placed on a January 14 immigration “freeze” list — excluding those already covered by the December 16 ban — will eventually be permitted to apply for immigrant visas or adjustment of status. However, the outcome remains uncertain.

 

Between 50% and 100% of applicants from these countries could be denied immigrant visas, depending on how strictly the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department apply revised “public charge” criteria intended to screen out new immigrants.

 

The practical impact of the December 16 proclamation extends beyond visa numbers. It affects US citizens seeking to sponsor close family members from the 39 countries, employers hoping to recruit workers from those regions, and US universities planning to admit students who may later pursue permanent residency.

 

 

Could there be a spill-over to employment-based green cards?

 

Restrictions on family-based immigration may also have indirect consequences for employment-based green cards.

 

Immigrant visas in family categories can, under certain circumstances, become available for employment-based applicants if they go unused. With nationals of the 75 countries unable to receive green cards during the freeze, unused family-based quotas could shift to employment-based categories in subsequent years.

 

“As the nationals of these 75 countries will no longer be eligible for green cards, there is a possibility for unused family-based green cards to spill over to the employment-based category due to the freeze on immigrant visas from these countries,” said Emily Neumann, immigration attorney in a post on x.

 

Such spill-over would depend on whether unused family-based quotas are formally carried forward and reassigned in the following year, a process shaped by both statute and administrative practice.