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As parts of India reel from a searing summer with over 150 lives reportedly lost in a matter of days to heatwave, climate experts have warned that El Niño conditions — linked to warming sea surface temperatures — may add to the crisis triggering extreme weather events till early July.
“Climate change is the disease and El Niño and other factors are just symptoms. With increasing global warming, incidents of heatwaves are expected to increase in the future,” said Anjal Prakash, research director and adjunct associate professor, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, Hyderabad.
While definitions of heatwave vary across and even within countries, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) identifies a heat wave as “when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 50 degrees Celsius”. In India, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a heatwave should be declared when the maximum temperature is recorded at or above 45 degrees Celsius for all locations and at or above 40 degrees Celsius for coastal locations. In India, heatwaves start in the last days of March and continue till July.
This year’s heatwaves are more severe than recorded last year, experts claim.
Amid rising cases of heatwave across the country, several state governments have started providing compensation. Recently, the Maharashtra government announced compensation of Rs 5 lakh after more than a dozen people died of heatstroke at a state-sponsored event. Earlier this month, Odisha, while confirming its first heat wave-related death, sanctioned an ex gratia of Rs 50,000 for the family of the deceased.
However, governments in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar — two of the worst-hit states — have not made any such announcement. Experts point out that most victims of heatwaves are from low-income groups and lack health and life insurance.
“Government compensation is the only help victims’ families get in such cases. However, in many cases, it becomes difficult for the family to avail of compensation due to the lack of proper documentation. A country like India needs a central advisory on compensation for victims of heatwaves,” said Prakash.
India reported one of the hottest summers in 2022, when it recorded 203 heatwave days. The total in 2022 was more than five times the 2021 figures (36). “Last year, western disturbances did not reach the mainland, causing low weather activities and more heatwaves,” said Naresh Kumar, senior scientist at IMD.
According to the IMD, heatwave or severe heatwave conditions have been prevailing over Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana and north coastal Andhra Pradesh for the last 12-14 days, and over East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha for last 8-10 days. However, heatwave conditions over East India and adjoining Central India areas are likely to abate from June 23, IMD said in its report on Wednesday.
The rising number of heatwave days is also taking a toll on human lives. According to the National Crime Records Bureau, in 2021, out of 7,126 accidental deaths attributed to the forces of nature, 5.2 per cent (374) are due to heatstroke. From 2017 to 2021, 4,195 people died of heatstroke.
From 1998 to 2017, globally, more than 166,000 deaths were attributed to heatwaves, including more than 70,000 in Europe in 2003, according to the World Health Organization.
Experts fear that the impact of climate change will be more visible as the earth’s temperature is rising. According to the recent IPCC Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I, titled “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”, the global mean concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases that are drivers of climate change have increased in South Asia and will result in a more intense and frequent increase in heatwaves and humid heat stress in the 21st century.
India will also experience the impact of climate change. According to a reply by Union Minister of State for Science and Technology Jitendra Singh, a government has found that the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and more frequent El Niño events in the future may lead to more frequent and long-lasting heat waves over India.
