Isma further lowers net sugar production estimate, no effect on supplies

Isma had, in January, estimated net sugar production at 27.2 million tonnes after accounting for a diversion of 3.7 million tonnes towards ethanol

India's net sugar production for the 2024-25 season, ending in September, is now projected to be around 26.4 million tonnes, down from the January estimate of 27.2 million tonnes, according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (Isma). 

  The decline is due to lower recovery in Uttar Pradesh and reduced production in Maharashtra. However, this drop will not impact supplies or prices, as the country will still have around 5.4 million tonnes of sugar by the end of the season.

  The closing sugar stocks for the 2024-25 season will exceed the normative requirement of two months' production, estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, the association said on Thursday. Supplies will remain adequate, supported by a higher-than-expected opening stock of 8 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season.

 

  Isma had initially estimated net sugar production at 27.2 million tonnes after accounting for 3.7 million tonnes diverted to ethanol. This estimate has now been revised downward to 26.4 million tonnes, with ethanol diversion projected at 3.5 million tonnes.

  “We will have a very comfortable opening stock position for the 2025-26 season. Moreover, next year’s sugarcane crop is expected to be very good, supported by a favorable southwest monsoon in 2024 and good water availability in reservoirs. Planting for the 2025-26 season has reportedly improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka,” said Deepak Ballani, Director General of Isma.  As a result, the 2025-26 sugarcane crushing season is set to begin on time in October 2025, with an estimated closing stock of 5.4 million tonnes, which is expected to be more than adequate. 

"Additionally, varietal replacement in Uttar Pradesh and other North Indian states has shown marked improvement, leading to better yields and recovery in the 2025-26 sugar season," Ballani added. 

 

Isma estimates total sugar consumption in the 2024-25 season to be around 28 million tonnes, down from 29 million tonnes last year, as the bump that elections provided to sugar sales will not be present this year. On retail sugar prices, millers are confident that retail prices will hover around Rs 43-44 per kg, almost at the same level as last year.

 

“The biggest highlight of this season is that we have cleared almost 99.9 per cent of the previous year’s sugarcane dues, while nearly 80 per cent of the current season’s dues have been settled as on date,” Ballani said. He added that the government’s timely decision to allow 1 million tonnes of exports resulted in an additional outgo of close to Rs 21,000 crore to farmers between January and March.

 

“Once the entire 1 million tonnes of sugar meant for exports is shipped out of India, a revenue of around $0.5 billion is projected to be earned by the sugar sector,” Ballani said. Around 300,000 tonnes of the estimated 1 million tonnes of sugar meant for exports has been shipped out so far.

 

SEA estimates mustard production at 11.52 million tonnes

 

India’s mustard production in the 2024-25 season is estimated to be steady at around 11.52 million tonnes, marginally down from 11.58 million tonnes last year, the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said today. The Centre has estimated mustard production this year at 12.87 million tonnes, down from 13.26 million tonnes last year, a drop of 3 per cent.