In 2025, private consumption growth rose from 8 per cent (2022-24) to 10.5 per cent, helped by goods and services tax cuts, income-tax relief, easing inflation, and lower lending rates.
Even as e-retail posted solid growth, the broader retail sector’s march towards $1.6 trillion by 2030 shows offline infrastructure will remain critical to reaching most Indian consumers.
“Five years ago, India’s e-retail story was about potential; today, it is a reality. GMV has more than doubled, the annual active shopper base is nearing 300 million, and the seller ecosystem has trebled, with growth increasingly led by Tier-II+ towns and GenZ,” said Shyam Unnikrishnan, managing partner at Bain & Company. “As India’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita approaches the $4,000 inflection point — where discretionary spending has historically accelerated in other emerging markets — it will provide further tailwinds. The next five years should unlock the next wave of growth.”
GenZ has emerged as a key cohort, accounting for 40–45 per cent of e-retail shoppers and contributing 50 per cent of incremental orders in 2025, with spend per shopper growing 2.5x faster than other cohorts in metros.
Growth is also becoming more geographically distributed, with Tier-II+ cities contributing about 50 per cent of incremental online orders in 2025, despite shopper penetration of just 25–30 per cent of internet users (versus 45–50 per cent in metro and Tier-I markets).
Despite the expansion, India’s e-retail penetration remains low at 1.6 per cent of GDP, compared with 13–14 per cent in China and 4–4.5 per cent in Indonesia, pointing to a long runway ahead. The report projects the market will reach $170–180 billion by 2030, sustaining about 20 per cent annual growth, driven by rising shopper penetration and higher spend per user.
India has emerged as a global leader in quick commerce (qcom), with 16–17 per cent of e-commerce GMV flowing through the channel — well ahead of most markets, including China.
The segment has doubled annually over the past two years, reaching $10–11 billion GMV in 2025. It is projected to scale to $65–70 billion by 2030, contributing 45–50 per cent of incremental e-retail GMV. Traditional e-retail, however, is expected to retain a 60–65 per cent share.
Qcom is also accelerating online grocery adoption. E-grocery penetration has grown fivefold since its launch and now accounts for nearly 1.5 per cent of the overall grocery market.
The model serves a dual role — as a convenience channel for essentials (85–90 per cent of GMV) and a fulfilment layer for discretionary purchases. It now operates more than 7,000 micro-fulfilment centres across 200 cities, with two-thirds of new capacity concentrated in the top 10.
“Shopping behaviour here is distinct, with high-intent missions driving faster checkout velocity and higher conversions,” said Manan Bhasin, partner at Bain & Company.
Balaji Thiagarajan, chief product and technology officer at Flipkart, said scaling digital commerce in India is “a precision game, not just a volume game”.
“This is why Flipkart’s conversational engine is built for the Indian context — by Indians, for Indians. By layering generative artificial intelligence, we are ensuring a vernacular conversation for a customer in Muzaffarpur feels as effortless as one in a metro,” he said.
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E-retail at $65-66 billion in 2025, growth back at 19-21%
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With nearly 300 million shoppers, market size has doubled in five years
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GenZ drives the surge, powering half of new demand
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Tier-II+ markets contribute 50% of incremental orders
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Quick commerce at $10-11 billion, scaling rapidly towards $70 billion estimated by 2030
 "e-retail, qcomm, ecom, e-commerce")