Although US President Donald Trump has claimed that India has agreed to stop buying Russian crude oil, the Indian government has not officially commented on the same. If announced, the reduction in Russian oil imports would necessarily be gradual as some Indian refiners have already booked cargoes for later delivery, the executives said.
“We have not received directions from the Indian government. We can be asked to reduce (Russian oil) supply to 10 per cent or 20 per cent, or to completely stop buying, we don’t know as of now. Replacing Russian oil is operationally possible but we tend to lose commercial benefit,” said one of the executives.
Indian refiners had already slashed crude oil purchases from Moscow despite recent discounts hovering as high as $8-10 per barrel amid the recent sanctions on Russian oil producers. Discounts on Russian oil had reduced to $2-5 a barrel in late 2025, or prior to the US sanctions.
In January, India’s Russian oil supply slumped to 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd), lowest since December 2022, according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler. Only two state-run refiners — Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) — and Russia-backed Nayara Energy Ltd purchased crude oil from Moscow in January, showed Kpler data.
India’s major refiners are IOCL, BPCL, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), and Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL). Queries sent to all the above-mentioned companies remained unanswered at the time of going to the press.
Trump also claimed that India has agreed to buy more energy from the US, and potentially Venezuela, to replace Russian oil, adding that the move would “help end the war in Ukraine”. Meanwhile, Indian refiners have not yet received US approval for purchase of Venezuelan crude oil. US authorities captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro a month earlier, and offered crude oil from the country in the international market.
Experts said supply of Venezuelan oil, if approved, would not be enough to replace India’s Russian oil volumes. “India is currently buying around 1.2 million bpd of Russian oil. With limited production, Venezuela will be able to supply only around 0.2 million bpd to India. Most Venezuelan oil is being directed to the US. Even combined, US and Venezuela cannot fully replace Russian oil. We will need to source from somewhere else, if government decides to stop buying Russian oil,” a senior analyst at an Indian brokerage said on the condition of anonymity.
Indian refiners are seeking discounts of around $10 a barrel on Venezuelan oil due to its high acidic nature, which makes it difficult to process.
A complete halt in Russian oil supplies would have varied financial implications for different Indian refiners. Companies such as HPCL, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL), and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) would see no impact from the decision as the refiners have already stopped buying Russian oil in recent months. HPCL and MRPL did not purchase any Russian oil over the past two months while HMEL received only minimal supplies in December, according to Kpler data.
Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance and state-run IOCL and BPCL are likely to see some pressure on their bottom lines as the companies have been benefiting from discounted crude oil. RIL has stopped importing Russian oil into its export-focused special economic zone (SEZ) refinery, with Russian crude oil now being processed only at its domestic tariff area (DTA) refinery. Meanwhile, state-run players’ purchases have also declined recently.
IOCL was the largest buyer of Russian crude oil in January, receiving 598,000 bpd, followed by Nayara at 410,000 bpd while BPCL purchased 154,000 bpd during the month. RIL did not receive Russian oil in January.
Rating agency Icra estimates that replacement of Russian crude oil with market-priced crude would lead to around 2 per cent increase in India’s import bill.
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