Upside in revenues and ARPUs expected in Q3FY26 for telcos: Brokerages

Telecom revenues seen rising up to 2.6% in Q3FY26, led by Jio and Airtel, while Vodafone Idea lags amid subscriber losses and modest ARPU gains

Carriers are expected to see sequential growth in revenues ranging between 0.4 per cent and 2.6 per cent in the quarter ended December 2025, with Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel at the higher end of the spectrum and Vodafone Idea at the lower end, impacted largely by a dip in subscriber numbers. Average revenue per user (ARPU), a key metric of profitability, is expected to rise by 0.4 per cent to 1 per cent sequentially, according to brokerages tracking the sector.

 

Bharti Airtel is likely to report 4.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in consolidated revenue, with its India mobile services business growing 2.6 per cent, supported by moderate ARPU growth and subscriber additions, said Nuvama Edelweiss Securities Limited. While Vodafone Idea’s revenue is expected to grow 0.4 per cent, led by ARPU growth, EBITDA margin is likely to remain flat. The company’s progress on 5G rollout, fund-raising and movement on adjusted gross revenue (AGR) will be key variables to watch, Nuvama said in a note.

 

JM Financial expects consolidated growth of 1.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter and quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.1 per cent in India wireless revenue and EBITDA, respectively, led by robust mobile broadband subscriber gains of 5.4 million and healthy overall wireless subscriber additions of 3.3 million. ARPU is expected to rise 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 259.

 

“We expect Jio’s revenue and EBITDA to grow 2.1 per cent and 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter, respectively, led by robust subscriber gains (including home broadband and M2M SIMs) at 8.4 million versus 8.3 million in Q2FY26, and a likely 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter improvement in ARPU to Rs 212, aided by upgrades,” the brokerage said in a note.

 

Vodafone Idea’s revenue and EBITDA are likely to be largely flattish quarter-on-quarter, as a net subscriber loss of 3.5 million is likely to offset ARPU growth of 1.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 169, JM Financial added.

 

Morgan Stanley expects an ARPU rise for Bharti Airtel, supported by regular 2G-to-4G and prepaid-to-postpaid upgrades, and improved data monetisation. “For Reliance Jio also, we expect ARPUs to slightly improve quarter-on-quarter. While we expect tariff hikes to be imminent in Q1FY27, we believe even post the tariff hikes there is room for ARPU increases led by data monetisation and value-added services,” the brokerage said in a note.

 

It expects revenue of Rs 32,600 crore for Reliance Jio in the third quarter, up 2.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 11.2 per cent year-on-year, with EBITDA at Rs 17,700 crore and an EBITDA margin of 54.3 per cent. “We expect subscribers to grow to 514 million, up 7.4 million quarter-on-quarter, and ARPU of Rs 213. For consolidated JPL, we expect revenue and EBITDA growth of 2.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter, respectively, in Q3FY26,” the brokerage added.