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Real estate major DLF's growth seen on track despite Q3 FY26 miss

While some brokerages have cut their earnings estimates, they have a positive outlook in the medium term

DLF, DLF City
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DLF shares slide after a sharp Q3 bookings miss, but strong cash flows, zero debt and a robust launch pipeline keep brokerages bullish on the medium-term outlook.

Ram Prasad Sahu Mumbai

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The stock of the country’s listed real estate major DLF slid over 4 per cent on Friday after the builder reported muted bookings for the December quarter. 
With this fall, the stock is down over 14 per cent since the start of the year. 
While some brokerages have cut their earnings estimates given the Q3 miss, they are positive for the medium term. This is owing to the launch pipeline, steady annuity portfolio and valuations which have come off a bit. The stock is trading at 32 times its FY27 earnings. 
In the December quarter, the company’s bookings came in at just ₹419 crore. 
In the absence of new launches, redesign of its super-luxury project “The Dahlias” and a high base, the bookings were 97 per cent lower than the year-ago quarter, while on a sequential basis it saw a fall of 90 per cent. 
In the September quarter, the company’s bookings at ₹4,300 crore were better than expected and powered by Mumbai (₹2,300 crore) launch and contribution from “The Dahlias” (₹1,600 crore). 
For the nine months of FY26, the company’s bookings came in at ₹16,176 crore and this was 16 per cent lower than the comparable year-ago period. 
Given that the FY26 bookings target is in the range of ₹20,000-22,000 crore, the company has thus far achieved about 80 per cent of its target. It is expected to meet its FY26 guided sales. 
Going ahead, the launch pipeline remains strong. The launches in Q4 include Arbour 2 in Gurugram with a development value of ₹2,000 crore. In addition Goa, Panchkula, phase two of Mumbai project, the next phase of Dahlias and DLF City development are expected to be rolled out in FY27. 
In addition to launches, brokerages highlight the strong collections from customers. The company reported record gross quarterly collections in Q3 of ₹5,100 crore. For the nine months ended December of FY26, collections hit the ₹10,216 crore mark and this was one fifth higher compared to the year-ago period. 
Given the strong collections, the operating cash flow increased by 2.2 times year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 2.9 times sequentially to over ₹4,000 crore. 
Commenting on the cash flow, Jefferies Research points that customer collections saw a jump of 66 per cent, driving a large operating cash flow surplus. This, according to the brokerage, helped it achieve a zero debt status at the gross level, a first since its initial public offering (IPO). The company has guided for a growth of 10-15 per cent Y-o-Y in collections, going ahead. The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,000. 
On the annuity business, the company has an operational portfolio of 49 million square feet of rental assets with an occupancy level of 94 per cent. 
While SEZ portfolio has occupancy of 88 per cent, retail’s occupancy is at 97 per cent and non-SEZ portion is at 88 per cent. The lease income in the quarter increased by 18 per cent Y-o-Y to over ₹1,400 crore and was above brokerage estimates. 
The office business saw a decrease in net debt by ₹400 crore, as well as the cost of debt by 10 basis points (bps). The rental income is expected to increase from an estimated ₹6,400 crore to about ₹7,500 crore in FY27. 
Motilal Oswal Research has cut its estimates for DLF based on the absence of new launches in Q3FY26 and no incremental sales from ‘The Dahlias’. The brokerage has assumed a 12-13-year monetisation timeline for its remaining 150 million square feet of land bank, which adequately incorporates its growth visibility. It has a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹974.