Preparing for heatwaves: Timely and multi-pronged policy responses needed

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal heatwave days and elevated temperatures, particularly in western Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and adjoining regions from March to May. This aligns with global-warming trends and follows the driest February since 2001. Wheat, rapeseed (mustard), and chickpea are in the grain-filling or harvest stages. Thermal stress during this time can shrink kernels, lower yields, and degrade quality — outcomes that could affect rural incomes, procurement plans, and domestic food prices. Prolonged warmth in March could affect winter crops’ grain development, potentially reducing yields. India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer and a major importer of edible oils, is banking on a strong 2026 harvest to reduce its heavy dependence on imported palm, soybean, and sunflower oils. Agronomic experts estimate that even a rise of just 2-3 degrees Celsius during the grain-filling phase can reduce wheat output by as much as 10-15 per cent.

 

The experience of 2022 remains fresh, when an abrupt heatwave in March sharply cut wheat output, compelling the government to restrict exports to protect domestic supplies and keep prices in check. That experience remains a stark reminder of how weather volatility can affect outcomes. The recent data showing severe rainfall deficiency in Punjab (98 per cent), Haryana (81 per cent), and Himachal Pradesh (86 per cent) in February further compounds the risk for crops that depend on residual soil moisture just before harvest. Beyond crop yields, the heatwave outlook has broader economic implications. High temperatures drive up irrigation and cooling demand, straining already stressed water and power systems. In many urban and rural districts, electricity demand spikes during heat spells, testing grid stability. Meanwhile, water scarcity in agrarian belts threatens both irrigation and drinking supplies, prompting concerns over groundwater stress. Heatwaves also carry a direct public-health dimension. The IMD has cautioned that increased heatwave conditions could exacerbate heat-related illnesses, particularly among the elderly, children, and outdoor workers.

 

Policy responses must, therefore, be proactive and multipronged. First, extension services should be strengthened by providing precise district-level agro-meteorological advisories, which can guide farmers on irrigation scheduling and harvest timing. Second, crop-insurance outreach and timely claim settlements will be critical to buffer smallholders from weather risk, especially under programmes such as the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana. On the supply side, flexibility in procurement norms can prevent distress selling of heat-affected grains while safeguarding public food stocks. Water and power planners must anticipate peak loads and bolster drought mitigation strategies. Finally, vigilant monitoring of prices of cereals, pulses, and edible oils will allow timely market intervention to curb inflationary pressures and prevent supply bottlenecks. Although the food inflation rate is benign at the moment, expectations of lower crop yields can quickly change the outlook. The IMD’s forecast is a call to action. Early, coordinated policy responses are necessary to deal with a potentially disruptive hot season and protect both livelihoods and growth.