How Xi's military purge may affect China's war readiness, future of Taiwan

Authorities have not disclosed details, but the action represents one of the most significant leadership changes in China's armed forces in years

China made a major announcement over the weekend, saying it was investigating the army's top general for suspected serious violations of discipline and law. No details have been revealed, but the action is a highly radical move: The general was the highest military member just below President Xi Jinping.

The Defence Ministry said on Saturday that authorities were investigating two generals: Gen. Zhang Youxia, the senior of the two vice chairs of the powerful Central Military Commission, China's top military body, and Gen. Liu Zhenli, a lower member of the commission who was in charge of the military's Joint Staff Department.

 

The move shakes up virtually the entire commission, chaired by Xi, leaving only one of its six members intact.

"Xi Jinping has completed one of the biggest purges of China's military leadership in the history of the People's Republic," said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Centre for China Analysis.

For the army and China in general, the full impact of the changes is still unknown. But some experts say the moves also might have repercussions on Beijing's next move on Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own territory.

Here are some elements to understand why Gen. Zhang's removal is important.

What was behind the latest military purge

The Defence Ministry announced the measures on Saturday but provided no details on the alleged wrongdoing. The next day, the People's Liberation Army Daily published an editorial that fell short of explaining the specific reasons, saying only that it was "for suspected serious violations of discipline and law" and showed China's commitment to punishing corruption. That is something Xi has pursued since the early days of his presidency.

Rumours have circulated on social media, and there have been some media reports about the changes, but nothing official.

"I do not believe any evidence publicly released or selectively leaked by Chinese authorities would necessarily reflect the core reason for Zhang's removal," said K. Tristan Tang, nonresident Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum. "The critical point is that Xi Jinping decided to move against Zhang; once an investigation is launched, problems are almost inevitably uncovered."

Analysts have said the purges are designed to reform the military and ensure loyalty to Xi. They are part of a broader anti-corruption drive that has resulted in punishment for more than 200,000 officials since the Chinese leader came to power in 2012.

Before Zhang and Liu's dismissal, the Communist Party expelled the other vice chair of the commission, He Weidong, in October. He was replaced by Zhang Shengmin, who is now the only commission member.

Since 2012, at least 17 Generals from the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, have been removed from their military positions, among them eight who were former top commission members, according to a review of military statements and state media reports made by The Associated Press.

How a top military change can impact moves on Taiwan

Some think the removals could have repercussions for China's decisions on Taiwan, but it is far from clear.

China considers Taiwan its own territory and has threatened to take control of the island by force if necessary. China also has increased military pressure and, last month, launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan for two days after the US government announced major arms sales to Taiwan.

Thomas, from the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the latest purge "makes China's threat toward Taiwan weaker in the short term but stronger in the long term."  It would make a military escalation against the island riskier in the immediate term because of "a high command in disarray," but in the long term would mean the army has a more loyal and less corrupt leadership with more military capabilities, he said.

Asked if this might reinforce the idea that removing top military brass might show China is not ready for war, Tang from the Pacific Forum said it "does not fundamentally change that assessment".

"That said," he added, "I also do not believe the PLA's combat readiness has been severely disrupted."

Military commission's future remains unclear

With the recent changes, the military commission will operate with only one of six members active and Xi at the top as the chair.

The PLA's Daily editorial said that after the actions against Zhang and Liu, the party is moving to "promote the rejuvenation of the People's Liberation Army, and inject powerful momentum into building a strong military force."  But it's not clear if the five vacant positions will be replaced soon or if Xi will wait until 2027, when there will be a selection of a new Communist Party Central Committee, the body in charge of also appointing the new military commission members.

Tang, from the Pacific Forum, doesn't see any pressure on Xi to fill the positions in the short term.

"Unless the objective is to create an internal counterweight to Zhang Shengmin," the only current member in the commission, he said.