US intelligence agencies warn about potential Israel strike on Iran

Iran and Israel have been engaged in a long-standing conflict that intensified following the war in Gaza. Israeli leaders believe that Iran is more vulnerable now, US intelligence findings revealed

United States intelligence agencies have assessed that Israel is considering launching significant strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025, aiming to capitalise on Iran’s weakened position. This intelligence finding was included in an analysis prepared in the final days of the Biden administration and later reiterated in a report delivered early in Trump’s presidency, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing officials familiar with the matter.

 

Why is Israel considering an attack now?

Israeli leaders believe that Iran is more vulnerable than before due to setbacks suffered in the past year. Israel’s military actions, including strikes on Iranian military infrastructure and the weakening of Tehran’s regional allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, have diminished Iran’s deterrence capabilities.

 

 

Israeli officials, including Defence Minister Israel Katz, have signalled that they see an opportunity to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. “Iran is more exposed than ever,” Katz said in November, describing the situation as a crucial moment to neutralise the perceived threat.

 

US intelligence findings

US intelligence report warned that Israel could push the Trump administration to back such strikes. Officials believe Israel sees Trump as more likely to support an attack compared to Biden, who had previously urged restraint. A second intelligence assessment delivered after Trump took office reaffirmed these concerns.

 

Military experts suggest that if Israel were to proceed, US military support would likely be required. Iran’s nuclear facilities are heavily fortified, making an Israeli operation alone a significant challenge.

 

Israel-Iran tensions escalate 

Iran, a strong opponent of Israel, has consistently supported groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which have been fighting against Israeli forces. In response to key assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in 2024, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel on October 1, citing retaliation for these killings.

 

Israel, in turn, carried out a counterattack on Iran’s central Isfahan region nearly three weeks later. Reports suggest Israeli drones targeted radar systems linked to Iran’s S-300 air defense system, which Israel perceives as a significant threat. The conflict between the two nations has escalated from indirect confrontations and proxy battles to direct strikes on each other’s territories.

 

Iran-Israel relations

Iran and Israel have been engaged in a long-standing conflict that intensified following the war in Gaza. 

The hostility can be traced back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which overthrew the Shah and established the current regime. Since then, Iran has maintained a policy of non-recognition of Israel and has openly called for its destruction. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has frequently described Israel as a “cancerous tumour” that must be eradicated, reinforcing Tehran’s hardline stance against the Israeli state.

 

Before Iran’s missile attack on Israel in April 2024, the two countries had been engaged in a ‘shadow war’, carrying out covert attacks on each other’s assets without officially acknowledging responsibility. However, the ongoing war in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’s attack on Israeli communities in October 2023, has significantly escalated tensions between the two nations.

 

Regional and global implications

An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could further destabilise West Asia. Iran has threatened retaliation in the past, and an attack could trigger a broader conflict involving Iranian-backed groups across the region. The situation is also complicated by other crises, including the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.

 

Whether Israel proceeds with a military strike will likely depend on diplomatic negotiations, US support, and Iran’s response.