Mamata's gamble with an eye on early elections

When Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee gave the UPA a 72-hour ultimatum, she had factored in the possibility of the latter not conceding to her demand for a rollback on its decisions. Sources say Banerjee is banking on the possibility of an early poll. After the break-up from the UPA, Banerjee is looking at consolidating her position in the state; first in the coming panchayat elections in January 2013 and then in the Lok Sabha polls, to improve her seats from the current 19.

Elaborating on the rationale behind the TMC chief’s move to snap ties with the UPA, an insider explains, “This is casino politics. When you are playing blind, at times you win the jackpot or you lose it all,” he said. It is a no-return for Banerjee after upping the ante to such an extent as to demand a complete rollback of all decisions, including foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail; he explained.

In 2001 when Banerjee withdrew from the NDA government, her gamble had not paid off and her party lost the election it fought in alliance with the Congress. But this time around, she is hoping the gamble will pay off.

In any case, it was untenable for the TMC to agree to FDI in multi- brand retail as it has firmly opposed this in its manifesto. The TMC has had successfully opposed any move by the UPA to bring in multi- brand retail but with a new TMC cabinet minister Mukul Roy, the delicate balance gave way. Aggravating this situation was the continually worsening relations between the TMC and the UPA. “It was a relationship of suspicion. For a healthy alliance to work, there needs to be mutual trust and understanding, something blatantly absent in this relationship,” added a TMC leader.

The Congress is making the usual customary noises of talking to TMC ministers to “make them see the government’s point of view”, but Congress managers say they will not be going out of their way to make Mamata comfortable.

“It will now be battle Royale in the state from now on. The Congress and the TMC share a common turf and that is what she wants to grab,” said a TMC leader.

Evidence of the bitter fallout between the allies is already in the open. A slanging match has started between the Congress and the TMC and is only likely to escalate in the days to come. “Dirty linen will be washed in public akin to that which follows the parting after a bitter divorce, with each side accusing each other of transgressions,” said a senior Congress leader.

Speaking to Business Standard, West Bengal Pradesh Congress Committee president Pradip Bhattacharya said, “The TMC should remember that when they voted for us, they voted for a Trinamool-Congress combine. She will not gain in going alone.”