Warmer summer this year, predicts met department

Scientists said that every one-degree rise in temperature could pull down wheat yield by 10%

Daily temperatures across the country are expected to be up to one degree Celsius above normal this summer (March to May), except in the northwest where it could be even more, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.

“Studies also indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat waves, which can be attributed to increasing trends in greenhouse gases and warming of sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans,” the government agency stated on Tuesday.

This is part of its summer season forecast. It says above normal conditions are likely to prevail over the 'core heat zone'. This comprises Punjab, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra, all in Maharashtra.

There is a 47 per cent chance of maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone areas to be normal, and a 53 per cent chance of it being above normal, IMD said.

This could have an adverse impact on the standing wheat crop, particularly that sown late in parts of western UP, if the temperature increase starts right away.  Scientists say every degree rise in temperature could pull down wheat yield by 10 per cent. Around 70-80 per cent of the wheat sown in western UP has been late this year, as farmers waited for their sugarcane crop to be harvested.

IMD also said the mean temperature was significantly above normal in January, while 2016 was the warmest year recorded since 1901.

“This year’s forecast shows all the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) in all the 36 meteorological subdivisions across the country on an average would be one degree above normal,” it summarised.

POINTERS

a) Above normal temperatures expected all over the country in next three months (March-May)

b) In North India temperatures expected to be more than one degree above normal

c) Heat waves expected over major states like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Telengana, Odisha, Gujarat, Maharashtra from March

d) Temperatures in January 2017 was also above normal

e) 2016 was the warmest year ever recorded in India since 1901