Positivity rate rising faster, but still far from peak seen during 2nd wave

Four states have achieved a double-digit positivity rate. Testing is still not at levels reached during the second wave. Maharashtra's testing average is half of that performed during the second wave

On Monday, India registered over 37,379 Covid infections. As the country had only conducted 1.5 million tests, the positivity rate was 2.5 per cent. Although the positivity rate is galloping faster--until a week ago, India’s positivity rate was 0.6 per cent--it is much lower than the peak of 25.2 per cent witnessed during the second wave in May last year and 12.6 per cent during September 2020 for the first wave. 

A Business Standard analysis shows that cases have been galloping faster in the country; meanwhile, testing has not increased commensurately. While India was registering just over 5,000 cases a fortnight ago, daily infections on Monday had grown seven times to 37,379. During the second wave, it had taken 44 days for infections to jump seven times from their lowest point of 9,000 daily cases in the middle of February 2021. And, during the first wave, it took 60 days for infections to go from 5,000 to 35,000-mark.

Testing, on the other hand, has barely registered an increase. While India conducted 1.5 million tests on Monday, it conducted 1.3 million tests two weeks ago. In terms of seven-day average tests, the country has yet to cross the 1.5 million mark witnessed last in October or come close to a peak of 3 million tests conducted at the height of the second wave. 

States are exhibiting a similar trend in positivity rates and testing. Although positivity is still lower for all states than levels seen during the second Covid wave, four states have achieved double-digit positivity. Maharashtra, on Monday, had a positivity rate of 11 per cent, while West Bengal had achieved a positivity rate of 19.6 per cent. The positivity rate in Goa was 26.4 per cent, and in Mizoram, it was 15.7 per cent. But these are not the states leading the increase in positivity. While positivity in Maharashtra jumped 4.9 times between December 28 and January 3, the rate of increase in Delhi was 7.3 times. In Jharkhand, the positivity rate had jumped 7.8 times during this period.

As states ramp up testing, positivity is expected to increase further. Analysis shows that states that ramped up testing witnessed more significant increases in positivity. Delhi, which witnessed a 7.3 times increase in positivity, increased testing by 20.6 per cent in the last week. Chhattisgarh exhibited a similar trend. On the other hand, Maharashtra had only increased testing by 7.6 per cent.

However, testing is still not at levels achieved during the second wave. Even though Maharashtra averages 117,280 tests daily, it is way lower than the 270,000 samples the state tested in May last year. Delhi had achieved 99,699 tests in April last year but is testing a third lower at 69,265 today.