Weathermen divided on El Niño

El Niño has had an over-bearing impact on rainfall in India

A rise in surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the past 10-15 days has divided weathermen, with some seeing it as the first sign of the dreaded El Niño. Others are discounting the phenomenon.

However, they said it was too early to predict an impact on the southwest monsoon and a final picture would emerge in May.

El Niño has had an overbearing effect on Indian rainfall with four in five El Niño years seeing below-normal precipitation and three in five being outright drought years.

Skymet in its latest weather update said international weather models had started showing the resurfacing of the El Niño phenomenon. “We are just flagging the fact that some weather models have started showing a change in temperatures in the Pacific Ocean,” Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet Weather, told Business Standard.

He said the ocean provided two major signals about El Niño, one in January and another in April.  The January signal is showing emergence of El Niño.

“The positive factor is that the Indian Ocean Dipole, another weather phenomenon that impacts the monsoon, is positive this year,” Singh added.

The India Meteorological Department, however, said any prediction on El Niño before the Spring Barrier, which occurs in March-May, could go woefully wrong.

“Oceans in their normal course become warm sometimes and cooler at other times. When they become slightly warmer, some global models capture it. To make a firm judgement on this could be wrong,” said DS Pai, director of the Long Range Forecast at IMD.

He said not all models were indicating a resurfacing of El Niño. “The situation is still neutral El Niño, and a final picture will emerge in the next few months,” he added.