Global wheat trade may slump by 17%

The global wheat trade is likely to decline by 17 per cent to 666 million tonnes (MT) in 2009-10 due to lower purchases in the Middle East and north Africa, UK-based International Grains Council (IGC) said.

Last year, about 687 MT of wheat was traded in the global market, the latest grain report said.

According to the IGC report, imports by Iran are projected to fall by around 60 per cent to 3.5 MT as its crop is showing moderate recovery.

Similarly, imports by North Africa are forecast to be about one-fifth lower than in 2008-09, at 18.3 MT as large domestic supplies will limit import needs in Algeria and Morocco, it said, adding that higher production is likely to cut imports by Syria and Turkey at 0.4 MT and 1.7 MT, respectively.

However, Saudi Arabia is expected to import 1.6 MT, up 23 per cent from last year, as local output continues to decline following changes in agricultural policy, IGC noted.

The report also highlighted that the shipments from five major exporters — the US, Europe, Canada, Australia and Argentina are placed lower by 19.21 per cent to 74.4 MT.

The exports by US are expected to decline to 25 MT from 27 MT due to slow sales. The shipments from Europe are seen to be lower at 17.3 MT because of poor global import demand and strong competition from other exporters.

Exports by Argentina are forecast to fall sharply to 2.5 MT from 8.5 MT in the review period, while India and Pakistan are projected to sell 1 MT and 1.4 MT, respectively, in the global market this year, it added.