July rains expected to be close to Met forecast of 93% of average

The southwest monsoon in July, the most crucial month for sowing of kharif crops, was around 89 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) till Monday.

By month-end, it is expected to be around 93 per cent of the LPA, nearer to the earlier forecast made by India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the month.

July traditionally gets the maximum rain during the four-month monsoon season, estimated to be a little over 25 per cent of the 89 cm rainfall.

By IMD's measure at any given time, monsoon rain over 110 per cent of the LPA is considered excess. Rainfall at 105-110 per cent of the LPA is regarded as above normal; 95-105 per cent of LPA is considered normal rains. Rain at 90-95 per cent of LPA is below normal; below 90 per cent is drought.

RAIN REVIVAL

• July rains expected to be around 93% of LPA
• IMD had forecast July rains to around the same level
• Overall seasonal deficiency may drop to 20% by end of July
• August rains expected to be normal

D S Pai, director of Long Range Forecast (LRF) in the IMD, told Business Standard the overall monsoon deficit from June 1 to July 31 could come down to around 20 per cent if their forecast comes true. As of July 28, the cumulative deficiency stood at 25 per cent less than normal.

“With rainfall in August also expected to be normal, the cumulative deficit for the entire season as of now is expected to be within a manageable range,” another senior weather department official said. Pai said there had been a 30 per cent shortfall in the past two days but it wouldn't have a large bearing on the assessment as the monsoon had picked up from Monday.

In a related development, top agriculture ministry officials believe that though the shortfall in rainfall has been compensated to a large extent since the second week of July, it won’t bring kharif crop production to full normal levels.

“The rains were absent for almost 45 days this year. Hence, it should not be expected that there won’t be any impact on final output, though it will be much less than the earlier anticipation,” a senior ministry official said.

The monsoon arrived in India after a four-day delay and its progress thereafter was slow, which raised fear of widespread drought. Sowing of kharif crops had dropped to almost half of last year's level by the end of June; it has since shown a sharp improvement because of revival of rains.