Weekly economic indicators: Power generation, traffic congestion dip

Other indicators too declined in the festive season from their gains in earlier weeks

Power generation and traffic congestion numbers were lower on a relative basis compared to last week’s figures as large parts of the country geared up for Diwali. Other weekly indicators too showed signs of slowing down.

Business Standard tracks pollution levels, goods carried by the Indian Railways, visits to various categories of places including workplaces and retail and recreational spots; in addition to power generation and traffic numbers. They help provide a more current picture of the economy ahead of the release of official figures which appear with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators to understand the fast-changing situation on the ground as countries grapple with the Covid-19 pandemic. All data is as of Sunday 15th November except for mobility numbers. Search engine Google releases the data with a lag. The latest is as of November 10th.

Indian generated nearly seven per cent more electricity in the latest week, than over the same period in 2019. The previous week’s figures showed a larger gap of 12 per cent. It was closer to 20 per cent in the week before that. The gap has been narrowing over recent weeks (see chart 1).

Traffic congestion from global location tracking firm TomTom International showed a moderation in recent gains. Both Mumbai and New Delhi had lower traffic congestion relative to 2019 for the latest week, than previously (see chart 2).

The Indian Railways carried 10.1 per cent more goods for the seven days ending Sunday, than the same period in 2019. The gain was 13.2 per cent in the previous week.  The gain in freight earnings fell from 6.2 per cent to 4.4 per cent (see chart 3).

Business Standard also tracks levels of nitrogen dioxide in the air. The emission comes from industrial activity and vehicles. Mumbai’s emissions based on Bandra locality data shows a 98.5 per cent decline from 2019. Delhi’s emissions are 26.1 per cent higher than 2019, lower than the figure of around 55 per cent seen in the previous week (See chart 4,5).

Google uses anonymised location data to find out how visits to various categories of places have changed because of the pandemic. Only shopping for essentials captured through grocery and pharmacy visits is higher than levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns.  Visits to retail and recreation spots are still down by over a quarter. Workplace visits crossed 80 per cent of what was seen in normal times (see chart 6).