Why BJP believes it will win Delhi, despite opinion polls

Sangh parivar is relying heavily on first-time voters and hopes women will also vote for Bedi

On the backfoot due to unfavourable opinion polls and voluble ground support for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still thinks it can win the Delhi Assembly elections.

The national capital will go to vote on Saturday. But analysts of the BJP and its parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), believe that more than a million new voters, a woman as their chief ministerial candidate and door-to-door campaigning will tilt the scales in their favour.

RSS activists claim opinion polls conducted by different think tanks and the media, predicting a runaway victory for AAP, have not taken into consideration that since the 2013 Assembly election, more than a million voters have been registered.

In that election, too, the BJP had emerged as the largest party with 32 seats, the AAP coming second with 28. Led by Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP went on to form a government. Since then, the number of voters have increased from 11.9 million to 13 million, an average of 14,000 for each of the Delhi’s 70 constituencies. This is nearly equal to the number of voters added between 2008 and 2013.  

“These are young voters who had not taken part in the 2013 Assembly polls,” said BJP strategist Sanjay Kaul. “They will have faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of development.”

A Delhi-based RSS leader, who did not want to be named, said they had helped with voter enrollment in the the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections last year as part of their ‘100 per cent polling’ campaign.

Having Kiran Bedi as the chief minister candidate is also likely to draw women voters, who had supported the AAP in 2013, feel BJP analysts.

BJP spokesperson G V L Narasimha Rao, a former psephologist, claimed opinion polls favouring AAP were based on small sizes and suffered from a “low income bias”.

“It’s a tricky business to conduct a poll in Mumbai or Delhi. Interviewers find it easier to access people from the lower income group than the middle or aspirational segments,” he said.

RSS volunteers have started conducting their first round of griha sampark or door-to-door contact with their supporters and voters to ensure 100 per cent polling.

A weak Congress losing its vote share to AAP is another worry but RSS is banking strongly on its organisational strength.

“What gives us confidence is the fact that most AAP volunteers you see on the road are from other states,” said an RSS leader. “Our organisational strength will count in bringing voters to the booths.”

According to an internal polls of the BJP, where 22,000 people from different sections were interviewed, the party is likely to get 42 to 46 seats.

Insiders confess it will be a “see-saw” poll and the infighting with BJP’s Delhi unit has given AAP a lot of advantage. Win or lose, the unit will see a lot of changes post elections.