Bias turns negative for MCX Crude Oil; Natural Gas futures may consolidate

The MCX Crude Oil futures may test Rs 7,540-odd level this week; while on the upside MCX Natural Gas May futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 590.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: 7,782 

Support: Rs 7,540

Resistance: Rs 8,100

Despite the sharp volatility, the MCX Crude Oil May futures seem trapped in the trading range of Rs 7,500 to Rs 8,500 as indicated by the Bollinger Bands on the daily charts. 

The price-to-moving average action and the MACD has turned slightly negative indicating the possibility of downward pressure on the commodity in the near term. Crude Oil prices are currently trading below its 20-DMA and 50-DMA placed at Rs 7,975 and Rs 8,026, respectively.

As long as price remain below the key moving averages, Crude Oil futures can decline towards the lower end of the trading band, at Rs 7,500-odd level.

Among the other key momentum oscillators, the ADX index seems to be gaining stregnth along with the negative dip in MACD thus underlying possible strength of the bears. 

As per the weekly Fibonacci chart, the upside for MCX Crude oil seems capped around Rs 8,100 to Rs 8,250 for the remainder of the week. On the downside, sustained trade below Rs 7,900 can lead the commodity towards Rs 7,540-odd level.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, on Wednesday, MCX Crude Oil prices can trade in a broad range or Rs 7,530 to Rs 8,030; with support likely around Rs 7,695 - 7,630 - 7,580; whereas on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 7,870 - 7,935 - 7,985.

Natural Gas

Bias: Positive

Last close: Rs 562

Support: Rs 535

Resistance: Rs 590

The MCX Natural Gas May futures have exhibited massive volatility in recent trading sessions as prices trade at record high levels. Overall, the bias continues to remain positive as the price-to-moving averages action remains favourable.

As per the daily charts, the Natural Gas futures are likely to consolidate, albeit with a positive bias as long as they hold above its short-term (20-DMA) at Rs 565-odd level. Sustained trade above this level can trigger a rally towards Rs 610 - 650. 

On the flip side, inability to sustain above its 20-DMA can trigger a sharper correction towards the 50-DMA at Rs 470-odd level. 

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD is in favour of the bears, while most of the other key oscillators are in neutral mode. 

According to the weekly Fibonacci, the upside bias for the remainder of the week seems capped around Rs 590, with a possibility of the commodity testing support around Rs 535-odd level.

As per the daily Fibonaccir chart, the Natural Gas futures on Wednesday may trade in a broad range of Rs 520.50 to Rs 603.40; with support expected around Rs 547.25 - 536.40 - 528.50 and resistance likely around Rs 576.70 - 587.60 - 595.50.