Building a portfolio from Nifty stocks is tough

The last year has seen the Nifty swing between a low of 4,888 (October 2012) and a high of 6,229 (May 2013). Currently at the 5,600 level, the index has an annual gain of five per cent. It has lost four per cent in the last month. Since fixed deposits offered over seven per cent, this is an underperformance.

Individual Nifty stocks have much greater variance than the index, with a bearish bias. As many as 30 Nifty stocks have seen capital loss. HDFC Bank has a nominal gain of 0.2 per cent. Seventeen stocks have returned over five per cent, 15 have returned over 10 per cent and nine have returned over 20 per cent.

The three IT majors, HCL Tech (74 per cent), TCS (46 per cent) and Infosys (32 per cent) have been big performers. So were pharma majors, Lupin (41 per cent) and Dr Reddy's (33 per cent). The two FMCG giants HUL (29 per cent) and ITC (28 per cent) were major winners. Bharti Airtel (24 per cent) and Maruti (21 per cent) were other large gainers. Incidentally there isn't a single PSU with positive returns. The only infrastructure company with positive returns is Reliance Industries (six per cent).

On the flipside, really poor returns have come from 15 stocks that have lost over 20 per cent. This includes six infrastructure plays in JP Associates (-59 per cent), Bhel (-49 per cent), L&T (-44 per cent), DLF (-34 per cent), Reliance Infra (-32 per cent) and Tata Power (-23 per cent). It also includes six metals and mining stocks in Jindal Steel & Power (-45 per cent), Tata Steel (-42 per cent), NMDC (-41 per cent), Sesa Goa (-28 per cent), Hindalco (-23 per cent) and Coal India (-21 per cent).

The other big losers are PSU banks in PNB (-28 per cent), SBI (-23 per cent) and Bank of Baroda (-22 per cent). Pharma major Ranbaxy (-29 per cent) is an outlier.

Just 11 stocks had positive returns in the past month. The IT majors, HUL, Bharti Airtel and Cipla have all continued to do well. Beaten down stocks like Hero, Ranbaxy, Cairn, Jindal and NMDC have seen some revival.

Could you build a core portfolio out of these 11 stocks on the basis of the recent performance? The IT stocks will gain so long as the US economic revival continues and the rupee stays weak. HUL has defensive strength. Airtel is a good play if the telecom mess sorts out.

The other five are very high-risk but may be high-return. Hero would gain if the two-wheeler industry bottoms out. Cairn may gain on energy policy changes. Ranbaxy is still in crisis. Jindal and NMDC will rise with other metal stocks, if global metal prices improve.

The author is a technical and equity analyst