Pivot point for MCX Crude at Rs 6,300; Natural Gas Rs 441

On the downside, the MCX Crude Oil futures can re-test its recent low around Rs 5,850-level; whereas, the next support for beaten-down Natural Gas contract stands at Rs 401.

The MCX Crude Oil futures and Natural Gas futures are seen trading with a negative bias on multiple time-frames. In the process, indicating a possibility for these commodities to test long-term moving averages on the downside. 

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 6,340

Target: Rs 4,800

Support: Rs 6,165; Rs 5,850

Resistance: Rs 6,800

The MCX Crude Oil futures seem traded sideways in the last five trading sessions, and have consistently face some resistance around the short-term moving average (20-DMA).

The 20-DMA stands at Rs 6,300, and is a pivot point for Crude Oil prices going ahead as it also coincides with the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average). MCX Crude Oil futures need to sustain above the Rs 6,300 level in order to negate the negative set-up on the weekly chart.

According to the daily and weekly charts, sustained trade above Rs 6,300-level, can lead Oil futures to near about Rs 6,800 level. On the flip side, in case, Crude Oil prices trades consistently below the pivot point, it can re-test the recent lows of Rs 5,850. Below which, a sharp decline towards the 200-WMA, indicating a downside target of Rs 4,900 level seems possible.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil January futures may face resistance around Rs 6,395 - Rs 6,465 - Rs 6,535. On the downside, the energy-based commodity may seek support around Rs 6,165 - Rs 6,030 - Rs 5,935 in the remainder of the week.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil January contract is likely to seek support around Rs 6,305 - Rs 6,280 - Rs 6,240. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures may counter resistance around Rs 6,400 - Rs 6,420 - Rs 6,440. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 444.10

Target: Rs 401; Rs 285

Support: Rs 441

Resistance: Rs 500; Rs 509

The MCX Natural Gas December futures witnessed a massive fall of 23 per cent in the last three trading sessions. In the process, the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is seen expanding.

The key momentum oscillators, too, both on the daily and the weekly charts are in favour of the bears. 

As per the weekly chart, Natural Gas prices may test the support at its 100-WMA placed at Rs 401-odd level, below which the next significant downside target seems to be the 200-WMA, now placed at Rs 285-odd level.

So far this December, the energy-based commodity is seen respecting the support at its 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average) at Rs 441. As long as this holds, Natural Gas prices can bounce back to Rs 500-mark.

On the flip side, failure to the hold support at Rs 441, can trigger a slide towards the 50-MMA which also coincides with the 200-WMA at Rs 285-odd level.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas futures have given a strong Sell signal for the week. The bias for the remainder of the week is likely to remain bearish as long as the commodity trades above Rs 509. 

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas December futures may seek support around Rs 432.70 - Rs 424.40 - Rs 412, whereas on the upside the commodity is likely to counter resistance around Rs 464 - Rs 470 - Rs 476.