B Dasarath Reddy: In Seemandhra, a two-pronged battle

It's tough to pick a winner, as the people hold both the Congress and BJP equally responsible for the state's bifurcation

The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh has brought the two regional parties - Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the YSR Congress - to the centre stage of the Lok Sabha elections in Seemandhra, scheduled for May 7.

The Congress, which had won 106 of the 175 Assembly seats and 21 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra in 2009, is expected to remain on the sidelines, as the perception here is that reorganisation of the state is against the interests of this region. Much damage was caused to the Congress by its own leaders from Seemandhra, including former chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy. Also, a few rich and powerful leaders of the region had criticised the party leadership for its decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh.

Though the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre has ratified decisions such as setting up a mechanism to implement the Polavaram irrigation project in Seemandhra, it is expected the Congress will fare poorly here.

That the YSR Congress has grown by eating into the traditional support base of the Congress doesn't augur well for the TDP, as it has not been able to attract new voters in the last two elections. In the 2009 elections, the TDP had attributed its defeat to the division of anti-incumbency votes by the Chiranjeevi-led Praja Rajyam Party. Had the Congress been able to put up a decent fight this time, the TDP would have been the gainer.

The TDP's tie-up with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aimed at stemming the steady loss of its vote share, especially in urban areas. The YSR Congress still commands a hold on the rural voter base.

At a time when Seemandhra is angry with the Congress for the state's bifurcation, the TDP-BJP tie-up should ideally have brightened the saffron party's prospects. However, the fact is most people in Seemandhra feel the BJP is equally responsible for the bifurcation. Also, the BJP was never a major force here. In the 1999 elections, it won four Lok Sabha seats, in alliance with the TDP. This time, it is contesting four of the 25 Lok Sabha seats, besides a dozen Assembly seats as an ally of the TDP.

Till April 30, all major parties were competing to claim credit for achieving separate statehood for Telangana. Now, with Seemandhra going to the polls on May 7, the situation is different - parties are accusing each other of aiding the bifurcation.

The situation of the Congress in Seemandhra resembles that of the TDP in Telangana, where it was accused of being in the stranglehold of political masters based in Seemandhra. Congress leader Digvijay Singh was being realistic when he admitted that this time, the party was trying to win a decent number of votes to keep its prospects for the 2019 elections alive in Seemandhra.

After being in the Opposition in Andhra Pradesh for 10 years and being sidelined in Telangana this time, Seemandhra remains TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu's last hope of returning to the reckoning. In re-entering into a tie-up with the BJP, Naidu acted early. And, the joint rallies with the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, have been received positively by the party cadre.

The state's division has also brought together the rich and powerful Kamma leaders of coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema to reinforce their community's hold on Seemandhra, under the TDP-BJP alliance. They are wary of losing political power on their home turf to the YSR Congress, which is backed by the Reddys.

After several adversities, including a 16-month jail term, YSR Congress chief Jaganmohan Reddy is fighting these elections with a vengeance. The popularity of his father, late Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, among the poor and minorities continues to be Jagan Reddy's political capital.

In a multi-pronged campaign, Naidu has been attacking Jagan Reddy with allegations of greed and corruption. At the same time, he is projecting himself as someone vital to rebuild residual Andhra Pradesh.

Jagan Reddy, meanwhile, has been countering Naidu's allegations and levelling similar accusations against Naidu. He has also been trying to project the TDP chief as a spent force. Jagan Reddy has unveiled a plan to build a new capital city, as well as essential infrastructure, including airports and ports.

The TDP-BJP combine has roped in popular film star Pawan Kalyan, younger brother of Chiranjeevi, into its election campaign. Kalyan is from the Kapu community, whose desire to see one of its members as chief minister remains a pipe dream. The YSR Congress, on its part, has given more seats to Kapu leaders in the Godavari districts.