Keeping fingers crossed, as IMD's 'normal' monsoon forecast is not final

Agri sector needs good monsoon to build on last year's recovery after back-to-back droughts

The forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of a normal monsoon this year has come as a reassuring factor, mitigating the unease on this count emanating from private weather forecasters’ projection of below-par precipitation in the forthcoming rainy season. The country’s agricultural sector needs a good monsoon to build on last year’s recovery after being battered by back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015 as well as the disruption caused by demonetisation in 2016. The overall share of this sector in the Indian economy may have shrunk to less than 15 per cent, but it still supports, fully or partially, the livelihood of a majority of the Indian population. A normal monsoon will improve farm production, contain inflation, boost rural demand and spur overall economic growth. Good rains are essential also to replenish fast receding groundwater resources and refill reservoirs to irrigate fields and sustain hydroelectric power generation. However, this is only a preliminary forecast by the IMD. A more crucial and updated one will be released in the first week of June.

 
While it is true that the IMD’s assessment of the total rainfall during the season being 96 per cent of the long period average does not differ much from private forecaster Skymet’s estimate of 95 per cent, it does make a big difference in categorisation of the monsoon as normal, instead of below normal. This helps to lift business sentiment as well as the overall economic outlook. Moreover, what really matters, and should carry greater weight, is the indication by the IMD that the rainfall will be evenly spread across the country. This is in sharp contrast to Skymet’s prognosis that western and peninsular India run a higher risk of below normal rainfall with the regions such as Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu likely to be the worst affected. Given that many of these areas have experienced drought even last year, when the rest of the country enjoyed normal rainfall, it is indeed a highly disquieting projection. There is another reason why celebration must wait. With actual rainfall being off the mark in seven of the last eight years, the credibility of the IMD’s long-range forecasts issued in April is not too inspiring.

 
However, this year’s prediction should carry greater conviction for some good reasons. For one, this prognosis has been computed with a dynamic, rather than statistical, weather prediction model adapted from the US but modified to suit Indian conditions. Similar dynamic models are being used with good results in many other countries. This system is set to replace the statistical models used by the IMD since the late 1980s, which began to flounder a long time ago. Notably, this year, even the statistical model has thrown up a prediction similar to that of the dynamic model, thus lending further credence to the IMD’s monsoon estimation. This aside, the IMD has also kept in focus the possibility of the emergence of El Nino, which often affects the south-west monsoon negatively. But it has also taken into account the temperature regime in the equatorial Indian Ocean, called Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which seems to be favourable for the monsoon and may counteract the adverse impact of El Nino.