Not quiet on the border
Forget incursions; what about readiness?
The real question with regard to the border with China is not whether there have been Chinese intrusions, and whether (as government spokesmen have said) they have been no more than last year (in which case, was last year’s level of intrusions acceptable?). The real question is, what if Chinese troops do decide to come over the border? The vital issue when it comes to defence is not immediate intent or action, but capability. Government spokesmen have said that India in 2009 is not the same cup of tea that it was in 1962, when China handed India a drubbing in a short border war that has been seen ever since as a national humiliation.
So how different a cup of tea is it? Recent government moves are a tacit admission that India’s state of readiness and defence capability are not what they should have been. The air force has opened up three new air strips in Ladakh, for rapid mobilisation. Top-of-the-line, multi-role Sukhois have been stationed at Tezpur in Assam, and a decision to set up two new mountain divisions has been announced. There is also said to be action on improving the state of the border roads all across the Himalayas. All these are decisions taken in the last year or so, and it will be some time before they become operational realities on the ground. Still, they do suggest strongly that the government is conscious of the need to boost the country’s defences against a more powerful neighbour. Why it should do so by making public announcements at every step, which carry their own signals to China, is a mystery—especially when government spokesmen are keen to emphasise that they do not want alarmist press reports to trigger undesirable responses from China.
The belated eagerness to play down media reports (the foreign secretary marked a new low for the ministry of external affairs when she threatened to file police complaints against erring journalists, who must have been briefed by government officials in the first place) reveals the obvious: India is not spoiling for a fight with China. As much should be clear to the Chinese, who have vastly superior infrastructure on their side of the border, and perhaps superior forces as well (with the possible exception of air cover). It does not serve China’s purpose either, to engage in open conflict with India; the country has after all emphasised its “peaceful rise” for several years now. However, there is wariness on both sides, which underlines the point that the issue to focus on is capability. Effective action on this will reduce the potential for conflict, not increase it.