Big Change On The Cards As Laloos Magic Does Not Work

Tel hi nahin hai to lalten kaise jalega (There is no oil to light the lantern).

This retort by opposition parties to the Rashtriya Janata Dals lantern symbol, aptly seems up the situation in Bihar. RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadavs popularity is on the wane, his rustic charms fail to enthuse people any more and fissures are clearly visible in his hitherto formidable MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination.

By all accounts, the Bihar strongman is heading for the worst ever drubbing at the hustings this time round.

Yadavs voice has cracked after hours of hectic campaigning but the crowd strength has dwindled every day. The buzz in north Bihar is that the RJD would not reach double figures in terms of Lok Sabha seats. In 1991, he had propelled the Janata Dal to 20 of the 27 seats in the region, while three went to allies. In 1996, the Janata Dal bagged 15 seats and ally Communist Party of India three in this Mandal heartland.

Today the situation is such that even in Yadavs home constituency, Gopalganj, the Samata Party nominee has an edge over the RJD candidate. The RJD candidates are strongly placed in seven seats in this area, whereas the BJP-Samata combine is the favourite in as many as 11 places. Mukhtar Ansari of Katihar says: A wave in favour of the BJP is quite discernible.

The decline of the RJD is mainly due to the fissures in Laloo Yadavs Muslim-Yadav-Dalit combination he had assiduously built over the years. The three social groups constitute more than 40 per cent of the total population in north Bihar, and gave Yadav a clear edge in previous elections.

However, the parting of ways with Dalit leader and Union railway minister Ram Vilas Paswan has cost him a major chunk of Dalit votes. Paswan is widely considered the undisputed leader of Dalits in general and of Paswans in particular. Paswans are the most dominant groups among Dalits and they provide leadership to Dalit politics.

There are 22 seats in the state where Dalits constitute more than 20 per cent of the population. The erosion of Dalits from the RJDs social base has considerably weakened the party, more so because they contributed generously to the RJDs vote share of around 80 per cent since 1991.

Why should we vote for Laloo Yadav? What has he done for us? He has humiliated our leader. Laloo is a crook. He took us for granted, Parsadi Paswan, a graduate of Saharsa, says. This correspondent came across several such Dalit outbursts against Laloo Yadav in North Bihar. Some mention the killings of Dalits at Lakshmanpur Bathe and his perceived inaction against the culprits.

The alienation of Dalits from the RJD is also symptomatic of the inherent social tension in Bihar. In the predominantly agrarian economy of the state, Yadavs and other backward castes (OBCs) have emerged as new oppressors of landless Dalits. Hence the Dalits-Yadav alliance was very fragile since its very inception, and only the charismatic leadership of Laloo Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan could hold it together. Paswans scathing attacks on Yadav in his election rallies has only deepend the fissures. In one of his rallies in Madhepura, Paswan attacked Laloo Yadav by name 23 times.

Laloo Yadav has tried filling the void created by the Dalit desertion with Rajputs by forging an alliance with Rajput leaders like Chandrashekhar and Anand Mohan. But this too does not seem to have worked to Laloos advantage.

Muslims and Yadavs however, have stood firm with the RJD. The alliance with the Congress did annoy the Muslims to some extent, but they see Laloo Yadav as the only challenger to the BJP. Similarly, Yadavs have stood firm with Laloo Yadav despite the split in the Janta Dal last year. It would appear that politics in Bihar is going the Uttar Pradesh way. And Laloo Yadav seems to be treading the same path taken by his counterpart in Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Dalit politics in Bihar too has got separated from OBC politics, ensuring that the BJP gets an upper hand.